The working age population in the EU25 is forecast to decrease by 52 million by 2050

Over the next two decades the total population of the EU25 is expected to increase by more than 13 million inhabitants, from 456.8 million on 1 January 2004 to 470.1 million on 1 January 2025. Population growth in the EU25 until 2025 will be mainly due to net migration, since total deaths in the EU25 will outnumber total births from 2010.

The effect of net migration will no longer outweigh the natural decrease after 2025, when the population will start to decline gradually. The population will reach 449.8 million on 1 January 2050, that is a decrease of more than 20 million inhabitants compared to 2025. Over the whole projection period the EU25 population will decrease by 1.5%, resulting from a 0.4% increase for the EU15 and a 11.7% decrease for the ten new Member States.

The share of the population of working age (between 15 and 64) in the total population is expected to decrease strongly in the EU25, from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050, that is a fall of 52 million inhabitants of working age. The share of the population aged between 0 and 14 will also be reduced, from 16.4% in 2004 to 13.4% in 2050, while the proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to almost double over this period, from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050.

This information on population projections¹ in the EU25, Bulgaria and Romania, issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities, has been derived from the analysis and extrapolation of demographic trends. Given the length of the projection period, results should be considered with caution.

Largest declines in most of the new Member States

In 2004 the population is estimated to have decreased in seven Member States (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). By 2025 the population will decrease in another six; Italy (from 2013), Germany and Slovenia (both 2014), Portugal (2018), Greece (2020) and Spain (2022). By 2050, twenty Member States are expected to register a decline in their population; the previous thirteen plus Finland (from 2028), Austria (2029), Denmark (2032), the Netherlands (2036), Belgium (2037), the United Kingdom (2040) and France (2042). The population will still be increasing in Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden.

Between 2004 and 2050, the largest declines are expected to be observed in most of the new Member States: Latvia (-19.2%), Estonia (-16.6%), Lithuania (-16.4%), the Czech Republic (-12.9%), Hungary and Slovakia
(both -11.9%), and Poland (-11.8%). Over the whole period, the strongest increases will be recorded in Luxembourg (+42.3%), Ireland (+36.0%), Cyprus (+33.5%) and Malta (+27.1%).

In absolute terms the largest population decreases are expected in Germany (-7.9 million), followed by Italy (-5.2 million) and Poland (-4.5 million), while the highest rises are expected in France (+5.8 million), the United Kingdom (+4.7 million) and Ireland (+1.5 million).

Number of adults and young people down by 67 million by 2050

The proportion of the population in working age (between 15 and 64) is expected to decline sharply in the long run. In the EU25 it will pass from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050, i.e. in absolute terms from 306.8 million in 2004 to 254.9 million in 2050. In 2050 the lowest shares of the population of working age will be observed in Spain (52.9%), Italy (53.5%), Portugal (55.0%) and Greece (55.2%) and the highest in Luxembourg (61.3%), Malta (60.8%) and the Netherlands (60.7%).

The share of the EU25 population aged between 0 and 14 will decrease from 16.4% in 2004 to 13.4% in 2050. The largest decreases will be recorded in Cyprus (from 20.0% to 13.3%) and Ireland (from 20.9% to 16.0%). In 2050 the proportion of young people will range between 11.2% in Italy and 16.6% in Luxembourg.

More than 10% of the population aged 80 or over in 2050

On the other hand, the proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to rise substantially throughout the whole projection period. In the EU25 it will increase from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050, or from 75.3 million in 2004 to 134.5 million in 2050. The largest shares of elderly people in 2050 are expected in Spain (35.6%), Italy (35.3%), and Greece (32.5%), and the lowest in Luxembourg (22.1%), the Netherlands (23.5 %) and Denmark (24.1%).

The proportion of very old people (aged 80 and more) is expected to almost triple in the EU25, from 4.0% in 2004 to 11.4% in 2050, with the highest proportions expected in Italy (14.1%), Germany (13.6%) and Spain (12.8%).

As a consequence, the elderly dependency ratio² in the EU25 will rise from 24.5% in 2004 to 52.8% in 2050, while the young dependency ratio³ would remain more or less constant throughout the projection period, passing from 24.4% in 2004 to 23.7% in 2050. The total dependency ratio⁴ in the EU25 would increase from 48.9% in 2004 to 76.5% in 2050. This means that whereas in 2004 there was one inactive person (young or elderly) for every two persons of working age, in 2050 there would be three inactive persons for every four of working age.

Total population Population at 1 January (1000 inhabitants) Percentage increase with respect to 1.1.2004 2004 2015 2025 2050 2015 2025 2050 EU25 456 815 467 307 470 057 449 831 2.3 2.9 -1.5 EU15 382 674 394 727 398 780 384 356 3.1 4.2 0.4 New Member States 74 141 72 580 71 278 65 475 -2.1 -3.9 -11.7 Belgium 10 396 10 674 10 898 10 906 2.7 4.8 4.9 Czech Republic 10 212 10 012 9 812 8 894 -2.0 -3.9 -12.9 Denmark 5 398 5 498 5 557 5 430 1.9 2.9 0.6 Germany 82 532 82 864 82 108 74 642 0.4 -0.5 -9.6 Estonia 1 351 1 279 1 224 1 126 -5.3 -9.4 -16.6 Greece 11 041 11 390 11 394 10 632 3.2 3.2 -3.7 Spain 42 345 45 264 45 556 42 834 6.9 7.6 1.2 France5 59 901 62 616 64 392 65 704 4.5 7.5 9.7 Ireland 4 028 4 555 4 922 5 478 13.1 22.2 36.0 Italy 57 888 58 630 57 751 52 709 1.3 -0.2 -8.9 Cyprus 730 828 897 975 13.3 22.8 33.5 Latvia 2 319 2 174 2 068 1 873 -6.3 -10.8 -19.2 Lithuania 3 446 3 258 3 134 2 881 -5.5 -9.1 -16.4 Luxembourg 452 499 544 643 10.4 20.5 42.3 Hungary 10 117 9 834 9 588 8 915 -2.8 -5.2 -11.9 Malta 400 439 468 508 9.8 17.0 27.1 Netherlands 16 258 16 957 17 429 17 406 4.3 7.2 7.1 Austria 8 114 8 358 8 501 8 216 3.0 4.8 1.3 Poland 38 191 37 429 36 836 33 665 -2.0 -3.5 -11.8 Portugal 10 475 10 762 10 730 10 009 2.7 2.4 -4.4 Slovenia 1 996 2 019 2 014 1 901 1.1 0.9 -4.8 Slovakia 5 380 5 309 5 237 4 738 -1.3 -2.7 -11.9 Finland 5 220 5 354 5 439 5 217 2.6 4.2 -0.1 Sweden 8 976 9 373 9 769 10 202 4.4 8.8 13.7 United Kingdom 59 652 61 934 63 792 64 330 3.8 6.9 7.8 Bulgaria 7 801 7 130 6 465 5 094 -8.6 -17.1 -34.7 Romania 21 711 20 917 19 746 17 125 -3.7 -9.1 -21.1 Population structure – Main age groups Percentage aged 0-14 Percentage aged 15-64 Percentage aged 65+ 2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050 EU25 16.4 14.4 13.4 67.2 63.0 56.7 16.4 22.6 29.9 EU15 16.3 14.4 13.5 66.7 62.8 56.5 17.0 22.8 30.0 New Member States 16.7 14.4 13.2 69.7 64.5 57.7 13.6 21.1 29.1 Belgium 17.3 15.6 14.7 65.6 61.9 57.6 17.1 22.5 27.7 Czech Republic 15.2 13.5 12.6 70.8 64.1 56.5 14.0 22.4 30.9 Denmark 18.9 15.9 15.7 66.2 62.9 60.2 14.9 21.2 24.1 Germany 14.7 12.9 11.9 67.3 62.5 56.5 18.0 24.6 31.6 Estonia 16.0 16.2 14.8 67.9 63.9 59.6 16.1 19.9 25.6 Greece 14.5 13.3 12.3 67.7 63.9 55.2 17.8 22.8 32.5 Spain 14.5 12.8 11.5 68.6 65.2 52.9 16.9 22.0 35.6 France5 18.6 16.7 15.8 65.1 60.9 57.0 16.3 22.4 27.2 Ireland 20.9 18.2 16.0 68.0 65.3 57.8 11.1 16.5 26.2 Italy 14.2 12.1 11.2 66.6 62.9 53.5 19.2 25.0 35.3 Cyprus 20.0 15.6 13.3 68.1 65.2 60.5 11.9 19.2 26.2 Latvia 15.4 16.2 14.8 68.4 64.1 59.1 16.2 19.7 26.1 Lithuania 17.7 15.1 13.7 67.3 65.7 59.6 15.0 19.2 26.7 Luxembourg 18.8 17.1 16.6 67.1 64.9 61.3 14.1 18.0 22.1 Hungary 15.9 14.3 13.8 68.6 63.7 58.1 15.5 22.0 28.1 Malta 18.2 15.6 14.5 68.7 63.1 60.8 13.1 21.3 24.7 Netherlands 18.5 16.1 15.8 67.6 63.3 60.7 13.9 20.6 23.5 Austria 16.3 13.8 12.3 68.2 64.1 57.3 15.5 22.1 30.4 Poland 17.2 14.6 13.0 69.8 64.3 57.6 13.0 21.1 29.4 Portugal 15.7 14.2 13.1 67.4 63.7 55.0 16.9 22.1 31.9 Slovenia 14.6 13.4 12.8 70.4 63.8 56.0 15.0 22.8 31.2 Slovakia 17.6 14.0 12.8 70.9 67.1 57.9 11.5 18.9 29.3 Finland 17.6 16.0 15.3 66.8 59.4 57.8 15.6 24.6 26.9 Sweden 17.8 17.1 16.3 65.0 60.7 59.4 17.2 22.2 24.3 United Kingdom 18.3 16.1 14.7 65.7 63.0 58.7 16.0 20.9 26.6 Bulgaria 14.2 11.7 11.5 68.7 64.5 55.0 17.1 23.8 33.5 Romania 16.4 14.1 12.5 69.1 66.9 57.9 14.5 19.0 29.6 Indicators of population structure Young dependency ratio3 (%) Elderly dependency ratio2 (%) Total dependency ratio4 (%) 2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050 2004 2025 2050 EU25 24.4 22.9 23.7 24.5 35.7 52.8 48.9 58.7 76.5 EU15 24.5 23.0 23.9 25.5 36.3 53.2 50.0 59.3 77.1 New Member States 24.0 22.4 22.8 19.6 32.7 50.4 43.5 55.1 73.2 Belgium 26.4 25.2 25.4 26.1 36.5 48.1 52.5 61.7 73.5 Czech Republic 21.5 21.1 22.2 19.7 35.0 54.8 41.2 56.1 77.1 Denmark 28.5 25.3 26.0 22.5 33.8 40.0 51.0 59.1 66.0 Germany 21.9 20.7 21.1 26.8 39.3 55.8 48.7 60.0 76.9 Estonia 23.6 25.3 24.8 23.8 31.3 43.1 47.4 56.6 67.9 Greece 21.4 20.9 22.3 26.4 35.5 58.8 47.8 56.4 81.1 Spain 21.2 19.7 21.7 24.6 33.6 67.5 45.8 53.3 89.2 France5 28.5 27.4 27.7 25.2 36.9 47.9 53.7 64.3 75.6 Ireland 30.7 27.9 27.7 16.4 25.2 45.3 47.1 53.0 73.0 Italy 21.3 19.3 21.0 28.9 39.7 66.0 50.2 59.0 86.9 Cyprus 29.4 24.0 22.0 17.5 29.3 43.2 46.9 53.3 65.2 Latvia 22.5 25.2 25.0 23.6 30.7 44.1 46.1 55.9 69.1 Lithuania 26.2 23.1 23.0 22.3 29.2 44.9 48.6 52.2 67.8 Luxembourg 28.0 26.4 27.1 21.0 27.7 36.1 49.0 54.1 63.3 Hungary 23.1 22.4 23.7 22.6 34.5 48.3 45.7 56.9 72.0 Malta 26.5 24.7 23.9 19.0 33.8 40.6 45.5 58.4 64.6 Netherlands 27.4 25.4 26.1 20.5 32.5 38.6 47.9 57.9 64.7 Austria 23.9 21.5 21.5 22.8 34.5 53.2 46.7 56.0 74.6 Poland 24.7 22.6 22.6 18.6 32.8 51.0 43.3 55.4 73.5 Portugal 23.3 22.3 23.8 24.9 34.7 58.1 48.3 57.0 81.9 Slovenia 20.8 21.1 22.9 21.4 35.8 55.6 42.1 56.9 78.5 Slovakia 24.8 20.9 22.2 16.3 28.1 50.6 41.0 49.0 72.9 Finland 26.4 27.0 26.4 23.3 41.4 46.7 49.7 68.3 73.1 Sweden 27.4 28.2 27.5 26.4 36.5 40.9 53.8 64.6 68.4 United Kingdom 27.8 25.5 25.0 24.3 33.2 45.3 52.1 58.7 70.3 Bulgaria 20.6 18.1 21.0 24.9 36.9 60.9 45.5 55.0 81.9 Romania 23.8 21.0 21.6 20.9 28.5 51.1 44.6 49.5 72.6 The Eurostat set of population projections is just one among several scenarios of population evolution based on assumptions of fertility, mortality and migration. The current trend scenario does not take into account any future measures that could influence demographic trends and comprises four variants: the ‘baseline’ variant presented in this News Release, as well as 'high population', 'low population' and 'zero-migration' variants, all available on the Eurostat website. It should be noted that the assumptions adopted by Eurostat may differ from those adopted by National Statistical Institutes (for example, assumptions about migration levels in Italy and Slovenia). Therefore, the results published by Eurostat can be different from those published by Member States. Population aged 65 and more as a percentage of population aged between 15 and 64. Population aged between 0 and 14 as a percentage of population aged between 15 and 64. Sum of young and elderly dependency ratios. Data for France refer to metropolitan France.