 |
| The working age population in the EU25 is forecast to decrease by 52 million by 2050 |
Over the next two decades the total population
of the EU25 is expected to increase by more than 13 million inhabitants,
from 456.8 million on 1 January 2004 to 470.1 million on 1 January 2025.
Population growth in the EU25 until 2025 will be mainly due to net
migration, since total deaths in the EU25 will outnumber total births
from 2010.
The effect of net migration will no
longer outweigh the natural decrease after 2025, when the population will start
to decline gradually. The population will reach 449.8 million on 1 January 2050,
that is a decrease of more than 20 million inhabitants compared to 2025. Over
the whole projection period the EU25 population will decrease by 1.5%,
resulting from a 0.4% increase for the EU15 and a 11.7% decrease for the
ten new Member States.
The share of the population of
working age (between 15 and 64) in the total population is expected to decrease
strongly in the EU25, from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050, that is a fall
of 52 million inhabitants of working age. The share of the population aged
between 0 and 14 will also be reduced, from 16.4% in 2004 to 13.4% in 2050,
while the proportion of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to almost
double over this period, from 16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050.
This information on population
projections1 in the EU25, Bulgaria and Romania,
issued by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities,
has been derived from the analysis and extrapolation of demographic trends.
Given the length of the projection period, results should be considered with
caution.
Largest declines in most of the
new Member States
In 2004 the population is estimated
to have decreased in seven Member States (the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland
and Slovakia). By 2025 the population will decrease in another six;
Italy (from 2013), Germany and Slovenia (both 2014),
Portugal (2018), Greece (2020) and Spain (2022). By 2050,
twenty Member States are expected to register a decline in their population; the
previous thirteen plus Finland (from 2028), Austria (2029),
Denmark (2032), the Netherlands (2036), Belgium (2037), the
United Kingdom (2040) and France (2042). The population will still
be increasing in Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta
and Sweden.
Between 2004 and 2050, the largest
declines are expected to be observed in most of the new Member States:
Latvia (-19.2%), Estonia (-16.6%), Lithuania (-16.4%), the
Czech Republic (-12.9%), Hungary and Slovakia
(both
-11.9%), and Poland (-11.8%). Over the whole period, the strongest
increases will be recorded in Luxembourg (+42.3%), Ireland
(+36.0%), Cyprus (+33.5%) and Malta (+27.1%).
In absolute terms the largest
population decreases are expected in Germany (-7.9 million), followed by
Italy (-5.2 million) and Poland (-4.5 million), while the highest
rises are expected in France (+5.8 million), the United Kingdom
(+4.7 million) and Ireland (+1.5 million).
Number of adults and young
people down by 67 million by 2050
The proportion of the population in
working age (between 15 and 64) is expected to decline sharply in the long run.
In the EU25 it will pass from 67.2% in 2004 to 56.7% in 2050, i.e. in
absolute terms from 306.8 million in 2004 to 254.9 million in 2050. In 2050 the
lowest shares of the population of working age will be observed in Spain
(52.9%), Italy (53.5%), Portugal (55.0%) and Greece (55.2%)
and the highest in Luxembourg (61.3%), Malta (60.8%) and the
Netherlands (60.7%).
The share of the EU25
population aged between 0 and 14 will decrease from 16.4% in 2004 to 13.4% in
2050. The largest decreases will be recorded in Cyprus (from 20.0% to
13.3%) and Ireland (from 20.9% to 16.0%). In 2050 the proportion of young
people will range between 11.2% in Italy and 16.6% in
Luxembourg.
More than 10% of the population
aged 80 or over in 2050
On the other hand, the proportion
of elderly people (aged 65 and more) is expected to rise substantially
throughout the whole projection period. In the EU25 it will increase from
16.4% in 2004 to 29.9% in 2050, or from 75.3 million in 2004 to 134.5 million in
2050. The largest shares of elderly people in 2050 are expected in Spain
(35.6%), Italy (35.3%), and Greece (32.5%), and the lowest in
Luxembourg (22.1%), the Netherlands (23.5 %) and Denmark
(24.1%).
The proportion of very old people
(aged 80 and more) is expected to almost triple in the EU25, from 4.0% in
2004 to 11.4% in 2050, with the highest proportions expected in Italy
(14.1%), Germany (13.6%) and Spain (12.8%).
As a consequence, the elderly
dependency ratio2 in the EU25 will rise from 24.5% in 2004 to
52.8% in 2050, while the young dependency ratio3 would remain more or
less constant throughout the projection period, passing from 24.4% in 2004 to
23.7% in 2050. The total dependency ratio4 in the EU25 would
increase from 48.9% in 2004 to 76.5% in 2050. This means that whereas in 2004
there was one inactive person (young or elderly) for every two persons of
working age, in 2050 there would be three inactive persons for every four of
working age.
|
Total
population
|
Population at 1 January
(1000
inhabitants) |
Percentage increase
with
respect to 1.1.2004 |
|
2004 |
2015 |
2025 |
2050 |
2015 |
2025 |
2050 |
|
EU25 |
456
815 |
467
307 |
470
057 |
449
831 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
-1.5 |
|
EU15 |
382
674 |
394
727 |
398
780 |
384
356 |
3.1 |
4.2 |
0.4 |
|
New Member
States |
74
141 |
72
580 |
71
278 |
65
475 |
-2.1 |
-3.9 |
-11.7 |
|
Belgium |
10
396 |
10
674 |
10
898 |
10
906 |
2.7 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
|
Czech
Republic |
10
212 |
10
012 |
9
812 |
8
894 |
-2.0 |
-3.9 |
-12.9 |
|
Denmark |
5
398 |
5
498 |
5
557 |
5
430 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
0.6 |
|
Germany |
82
532 |
82
864 |
82
108 |
74
642 |
0.4 |
-0.5 |
-9.6 |
|
Estonia |
1
351 |
1
279 |
1
224 |
1
126 |
-5.3 |
-9.4 |
-16.6 |
|
Greece |
11
041 |
11
390 |
11
394 |
10
632 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
-3.7 |
|
Spain |
42
345 |
45
264 |
45
556 |
42
834 |
6.9 |
7.6 |
1.2 |
|
France5 |
59
901 |
62
616 |
64
392 |
65
704 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
9.7 |
|
Ireland |
4
028 |
4
555 |
4
922 |
5
478 |
13.1 |
22.2 |
36.0 |
|
Italy |
57
888 |
58
630 |
57
751 |
52
709 |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
-8.9 |
|
Cyprus |
730 |
828 |
897 |
975 |
13.3 |
22.8 |
33.5 |
|
Latvia |
2
319 |
2
174 |
2
068 |
1
873 |
-6.3 |
-10.8 |
-19.2 |
|
Lithuania |
3
446 |
3
258 |
3
134 |
2
881 |
-5.5 |
-9.1 |
-16.4 |
|
Luxembourg |
452 |
499 |
544 |
643 |
10.4 |
20.5 |
42.3 |
|
Hungary |
10
117 |
9
834 |
9
588 |
8
915 |
-2.8 |
-5.2 |
-11.9 |
|
Malta |
400 |
439 |
468 |
508 |
9.8 |
17.0 |
27.1 |
|
Netherlands |
16
258 |
16
957 |
17
429 |
17
406 |
4.3 |
7.2 |
7.1 |
|
Austria |
8
114 |
8
358 |
8
501 |
8
216 |
3.0 |
4.8 |
1.3 |
|
Poland |
38
191 |
37
429 |
36
836 |
33
665 |
-2.0 |
-3.5 |
-11.8 |
|
Portugal |
10
475 |
10
762 |
10
730 |
10
009 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
-4.4 |
|
Slovenia |
1
996 |
2
019 |
2
014 |
1
901 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
-4.8 |
|
Slovakia |
5
380 |
5
309 |
5
237 |
4
738 |
-1.3 |
-2.7 |
-11.9 |
|
Finland |
5
220 |
5
354 |
5
439 |
5
217 |
2.6 |
4.2 |
-0.1 |
|
Sweden |
8
976 |
9
373 |
9
769 |
10
202 |
4.4 |
8.8 |
13.7 |
|
United
Kingdom |
59
652 |
61
934 |
63
792 |
64
330 |
3.8 |
6.9 |
7.8 |
|
Bulgaria |
7
801 |
7
130 |
6
465 |
5
094 |
-8.6 |
-17.1 |
-34.7 |
|
Romania |
21
711 |
20
917 |
19
746 |
17
125 |
-3.7 |
-9.1 |
-21.1 |
Population
structure – Main age groups
|
Percentage
aged 0-14 |
Percentage
aged 15-64 |
Percentage
aged 65+ |
|
2004 |
2025 |
2050 |
2004 |
2025 |
2050 |
2004 |
2025 |
2050 |
|
EU25 |
16.4 |
14.4 |
13.4 |
67.2 |
63.0 |
56.7 |
16.4 |
22.6 |
29.9 |
|
EU15 |
16.3 |
14.4 |
13.5 |
66.7 |
62.8 |
56.5 |
17.0 |
22.8 |
30.0 |
|
New Member
States |
16.7 |
14.4 |
13.2 |
69.7 |
64.5 |
57.7 |
13.6 |
21.1 |
29.1 |
|
Belgium |
17.3 |
15.6 |
14.7 |
65.6 |
61.9 |
57.6 |
17.1 |
22.5 |
27.7 |
|
Czech
Republic |
15.2 |
13.5 |
12.6 |
70.8 |
64.1 |
56.5 |
14.0 |
22.4 |
30.9 |
|
Denmark |
18.9 |
15.9 |
15.7 |
66.2 |
62.9 |
60.2 |
14.9 |
21.2 |
24.1 |
|
Germany |
14.7 |
12.9 |
11.9 |
67.3 |
62.5 |
56.5 |
18.0 |
24.6 |
31.6 |
|
Estonia |
16.0 |
16.2 |
14.8 |
67.9 |
63.9 |
59.6 |
16.1 |
19.9 |
25.6 |
|
Greece |
14.5 |
13.3 |
12.3 |
67.7 |
63.9 |
55.2 |
17.8 |
22.8 |
32.5 |
|
Spain |
14.5 |
12.8 |
11.5 |
68.6 |
65.2 |
52.9 |
16.9 |
22.0 |
35.6 |
|
France5 |
18.6 |
16.7 |
15.8 |
65.1 |
60.9 |
57.0 |
16.3 |
22.4 |
27.2 |
|
Ireland |
20.9 |
18.2 |
16.0 |
68.0 |
65.3 |
57.8 |
11.1 |
16.5 |
26.2 |
|
Italy |
14.2 |
12.1 |
11.2 |
66.6 |
62.9 |
53.5 |
19.2 |
25.0 |
35.3 |
|
Cyprus |
20.0 |
15.6 |
13.3 |
68.1 |
65.2 |
60.5 |
11.9 |
19.2 |
26.2 |
|
Latvia |
15.4 |
16.2 |
14.8 |
68.4 |
64.1 |
59.1 |
16.2 |
19.7 |
26.1 |
|
Lithuania |
17.7 |
15.1 |
13.7 |
67.3 |
65.7 |
59.6 |
15.0 |
19.2 |
26.7 |
|
Luxembourg |
18.8 |
17.1 |
16.6 |
67.1 |
64.9 |
61.3 |
14.1 |
18.0 |
22.1 |
|
Hungary |
15.9 |
14.3 |
13.8 |
68.6 |
63.7 |
58.1 |
15.5 |
22.0 |
28.1 |
|
Malta |
18.2 |
15.6 |
14.5 |
68.7 |
63.1 |
60.8 |
13.1 |
21.3 |
24.7 |
|
Netherlands |
18.5 |
16.1 |
15.8 |
67.6 |
63.3 |
60.7 |
13.9 |
20.6 |
23.5 |
|
Austria |
16.3 |
13.8 |
12.3 |
68.2 |
64.1 |
57.3 |
15.5 |
22.1 |
30.4 |
|
Poland |
17.2 |
14.6 |
13.0 |
69.8 |
64.3 |
57.6 |
13.0 |
21.1 |
29.4 |
|
Portugal |
15.7 |
14.2 |
13.1 |
67.4 |
63.7 |
55.0 |
16.9 |
22.1 |
31.9 |
|
Slovenia |
14.6 |
13.4 |
12.8 |
70.4 |
63.8 |
56.0 |
15.0 |
22.8 |
31.2 |
|
Slovakia |
17.6 |
14.0 |
12.8 |
70.9 |
67.1 |
57.9 |
11.5 |
18.9 |
29.3 |
|
Finland |
17.6 |
16.0 |
15.3 |
66.8 |
59.4 |
57.8 |
15.6 |
24.6 |
26.9 |
|
Sweden |
17.8 |
17.1 |
16.3 |
65.0 |
60.7 |
59.4 |
17.2 |
22.2 |
24.3 |
|
United
Kingdom |
18.3 |
16.1 |
14.7 |
65.7 |
63.0 |
58.7 |
16.0 |
20.9 |
26.6 |
|
Bulgaria |
14.2 |
11.7 |
11.5 |
68.7 |
64.5 |
55.0 |
17.1 |
23.8 |
33.5 |
|
Romania |
16.4 |
14.1 |
12.5 |
69.1 |
66.9 |
57.9 |
14.5 |
19.0 |
29.6 |
Indicators
of population structure
|
Young dependency ratio3
(%) |
Elderly dependency ratio2
(%) |
Total dependency ratio4
(%) |
|
2004 |
2025 |
2050 |
2004 |
2025 |
2050 |
2004 |
2025 |
2050 |
|
EU25 |
24.4 |
22.9 |
23.7 |
24.5 |
35.7 |
52.8 |
48.9 |
58.7 |
76.5 |
|
EU15 |
24.5 |
23.0 |
23.9 |
25.5 |
36.3 |
53.2 |
50.0 |
59.3 |
77.1 |
|
New Member
States |
24.0 |
22.4 |
22.8 |
19.6 |
32.7 |
50.4 |
43.5 |
55.1 |
73.2 |
|
Belgium |
26.4 |
25.2 |
25.4 |
26.1 |
36.5 |
48.1 |
52.5 |
61.7 |
73.5 |
|
Czech
Republic |
21.5 |
21.1 |
22.2 |
19.7 |
35.0 |
54.8 |
41.2 |
56.1 |
77.1 |
|
Denmark |
28.5 |
25.3 |
26.0 |
22.5 |
33.8 |
40.0 |
51.0 |
59.1 |
66.0 |
|
Germany |
21.9 |
20.7 |
21.1 |
26.8 |
39.3 |
55.8 |
48.7 |
60.0 |
76.9 |
|
Estonia |
23.6 |
25.3 |
24.8 |
23.8 |
31.3 |
43.1 |
47.4 |
56.6 |
67.9 |
|
Greece |
21.4 |
20.9 |
22.3 |
26.4 |
35.5 |
58.8 |
47.8 |
56.4 |
81.1 |
|
Spain |
21.2 |
19.7 |
21.7 |
24.6 |
33.6 |
67.5 |
45.8 |
53.3 |
89.2 |
|
France5 |
28.5 |
27.4 |
27.7 |
25.2 |
36.9 |
47.9 |
53.7 |
64.3 |
75.6 |
|
Ireland |
30.7 |
27.9 |
27.7 |
16.4 |
25.2 |
45.3 |
47.1 |
53.0 |
73.0 |
|
Italy |
21.3 |
19.3 |
21.0 |
28.9 |
39.7 |
66.0 |
50.2 |
59.0 |
86.9 |
|
Cyprus |
29.4 |
24.0 |
22.0 |
17.5 |
29.3 |
43.2 |
46.9 |
53.3 |
65.2 |
|
Latvia |
22.5 |
25.2 |
25.0 |
23.6 |
30.7 |
44.1 |
46.1 |
55.9 |
69.1 |
|
Lithuania |
26.2 |
23.1 |
23.0 |
22.3 |
29.2 |
44.9 |
48.6 |
52.2 |
67.8 |
|
Luxembourg |
28.0 |
26.4 |
27.1 |
21.0 |
27.7 |
36.1 |
49.0 |
54.1 |
63.3 |
|
Hungary |
23.1 |
22.4 |
23.7 |
22.6 |
34.5 |
48.3 |
45.7 |
56.9 |
72.0 |
|
Malta |
26.5 |
24.7 |
23.9 |
19.0 |
33.8 |
40.6 |
45.5 |
58.4 |
64.6 |
|
Netherlands |
27.4 |
25.4 |
26.1 |
20.5 |
32.5 |
38.6 |
47.9 |
57.9 |
64.7 |
|
Austria |
23.9 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
22.8 |
34.5 |
53.2 |
46.7 |
56.0 |
74.6 |
|
Poland |
24.7 |
22.6 |
22.6 |
18.6 |
32.8 |
51.0 |
43.3 |
55.4 |
73.5 |
|
Portugal |
23.3 |
22.3 |
23.8 |
24.9 |
34.7 |
58.1 |
48.3 |
57.0 |
81.9 |
|
Slovenia |
20.8 |
21.1 |
22.9 |
21.4 |
35.8 |
| | |
