 |
| Valero Energy Corporation is a Fortune 500 company based in San Antonio with approximately 20,000 employees and annual revenues of $55 billion. One of the top U.S. refining companies, Valero has an extensive refining system with a throughput capacity of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day. The company's geographically diverse refining network stretches from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Coast to the Caribbean. |
There hasn't been a new oil refinery built in
America since 1976 and with existing plants working close to capacity, even a
minor outage in a plant can impact the price of oil.
A combination of tight
environmental restrictions, not-in-my-back-yard community opposition, and the
high cost of new construction has been an impediment to additional
capacity.
A new refinery
would cost about $3 billion and refining margins have traditionally been much
tighter than on the crude production side.
The recently
passed Energy Bill omits limited liability protection for MTBE, a petrol
additive that pollutes groundwater. Valero, the largest American oil refining
group, has announced that it plans to stop producing the additive in 2006 when
the new law goes into effect. The loss of 60,000 barrels of petrol per day, will
be coumpounded, if other refiners follow suit.
The combination of limited spare crude
production capacity and oil refining capacity will continue to bolster
prices.
US
Energy Information Administration detail on Oil
Refining:
U.S. refining
capacity, as measured by daily processing capacity of crude oil distillation
units alone, has appeared relatively stable in recent years, at about 16 million
barrels per day of operable capacity (graph). While the level is a reduction from
the capacity of twenty years ago, the first refineries that were shut down as
demand fell in the early 1980's were those that had little downstream processing
capability. Limited to simple distillation, these small facilities were
only economically viable while receiving subsidies under the Federal price
control system that ended in 1981. Some additional refineries were shut
down in the late 1980's and during the 1990's, always, of course, those at the
least profitable end of a company's asset portfolio. At the same time,
refiners improved the efficiency of the crude oil distillation units that
remained in service by "debottlenecking" to improve the flow and to match
capacity among different units and by turning more and more to computer control
of the processing.
Furthermore, following government mandates
for environmentally more benign products as well as commercial economics,
refiners enhanced their upgrading (downstream processing) capacity. As a
result, the capacity of the downstream units ceased to be the constraining
factor on the amount of crude oil processed (or "run") through the crude oil
distillation system. Thus crude oil inputs to refineries ("runs") have
continued to rise, and along with them -- given the stability of crude oil
distillation capacity -- capacity "utilization" rose throughout much of the
1990's (again, see
graph). Utilization
-- the share of capacity filled with crude oil -- reached truly record levels in
the last half of the decade, nominally exceeding 100 percent for brief periods.
|
Top World
Oil Consumers, 2004* |
|
|
Country |
Total Oil Consumption (million barrels per
day) |
|
1) |
United
States |
20.7 |
|
2) |
China |
6.5 |
|
3) |
Japan |
5.4 |
|
4) |
Germany |
2.6 |
|
5) |
Russia |
2.6 |
|
6) |
India |
2.3 |
|
7) |
Canada |
2.3 |
|
8) |
Brazil |
2.2 |
|
9) |
South
Korea
|
2.1 |
|
10) |
France |
2.0 |
|
11) |
Mexico |
2.0 |
|
*Table includes all countries that
consumed more than 2 million bbl/d in 2004.
|
As with most aspects
of the U.S. oil industry, the Gulf Coast is by far the
leader in refinery capacity, with more than twice the crude oil
distillation capacity as any other United States region. (The difference
is even greater for downstream processing capacity, because the Gulf Coast has
the highest concentration of sophisticated facilities in the world.) As
discussed in the section on Trade, the Gulf Coast is the nation's leading
supplier in refined products as in crude oil. It ships refined product to
both the East Coast (supplying more than half of that region's needs for light
products like gasoline, heating oil, diesel, and jet fuel) and to the Midwest
(supplying more than 20 percent of the region's light product
consumption.)
There are seasonal patterns
in refinery input. In the United States, refinery runs mirror the overall
demand for products -- lower in the colder months and higher in the warmer
months. In addition, as they move out of the gasoline season in the early
autumn and then as they move into the next gasoline season in the late winter,
refiners routinely perform maintenance. The duration and depth of the
cutback in refining activity during each maintenance season is affected by a
variety of factors, including the relative strength of the market for refined
products. Therefore, when stocks are high and demand slack, the refinery
maintenance season is likely to be longer and deeper. Refinery activity
will also respond to the market's need (and hence relative prices) for product,
with changes in the level of crude oil throughput as well as emphasis on one
product over another.
World Refining
Capacity
Broadly speaking, refining
developed in consuming areas, because it was cheaper to move crude oil than to
move product. Furthermore, the proximity to consuming markets made it
easier to respond to weather-induced spikes in demand or to gauge seasonal
shifts. Thus, while the Mideast is the largest producing region, the bulk
of refining takes place in the United States, Europe or Asia.
There have
historically been a few exceptions, concentrations of refining capacity that
were not proximate to consuming markets. A refining center in the
Caribbean, for instance, supplied heavy fuel oil to the U.S. East Coast where it
was used for power, heat, and electric generation. As the demand for this
heavy fuel oil, or residual fuel oil, waned, so did those dedicated
refineries. While the Caribbean refineries, as well as refineries in the
Middle East and in Singapore, were built for product export, they are the
exception. As such, most refineries meet their "local" demand first, with
exports providing a temporary flow for balancing supply and demand. (See
the section on Trade.)
|
Top World
Oil Net Importers, 2004* |
|
|
Country |
Net Oil Imports (million barrels per
day) |
|
1) |
United
States |
12.1 |
|
2) |
Japan |
5.3 |
|
3) |
China |
2.9 |
|
4) |
Germany |
2.4 |
|
5) |
South
Korea
|
2.2 |
|
6) |
France |
1.9 |
|
7) |
Italy |
1.7 |
|
8) |
Spain |
1.6 |
|
9) |
India |
1.5 |
|
10) |
Taiwan |
1.0 |
|
*Table includes all countries that
imported more than 1 million
bbl/d net in 2004.
|
The largest concentration of
refining capacity is in North America (in fact, the United States), accounting
for about one-quarter of the crude oil distillation capacity worldwide, as shown
in the graph, and as discussed more fully below.
Asia and Europe follow as refining centers. As also shown in the graph,
North America (again, the United States) has by far the largest concentration of
downstream capacity -- the processing units necessary to maximize output of
gasoline. The gasoline emphasis of course mirrors the demand barrel and
hence refinery output in the
different regions, since no
other global region uses as much of its oil in the form of gasoline as North
America does.
Refinery Profitability and Industry
Structure
In general, refining
has been significantly less profitable than other industry segments during the
1990's, as shown in the
accompanying graph.
Gross refinery margins -- the difference between the cost of the input and the
price of the output -- have been squeezed at the same time that operating costs
and the need for additional investment to meet environmental mandates has grown,
thus reducing the net margin even further. In addition, much of the
investment made during the 1980's was designed to take advantage of the
differential between the dwindling supply of higher quality crude oils and the
growing supply of heavier and higher sulfur crudes. When that differential
narrowed, however, the financial return on those investments declined.
Refining margins peaked in the late 1980's.
During the 1990's the role
of independent refiners (those without significant production) has grown
substantially, largely as the result of refinery purchases from integrated
companies (the "majors") seeking to streamline and realign their
positions. Furthermore, the independent refiners, like the majors, are in
a period of consolidation; the mergers and acquisitions are having a significant
impact on refinery ownership (although not overall refined product supply).