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Last Updated: Dec 19th, 2007 - 13:17:15 |
The Irish Independent reports that the euro tumbled from its seven-month highs against major currencies yesterday, after ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet dashed expectations of a rise in interest rates next month.
While borrowers breathed a sigh of relief, analysts said the surprise line from Mr Trichet showed the difficulty of achieving consensus on the ECB Governing Council, which does not like to operate purely on majority vote.
Market interest rates also fell, although they are still pricing in three quarter-point hikes by the end of the year.
However, with the first of these not now expected until June, the chances have increased that there will be just one more rise after that, bringing rates to 3pc.
Surprise
Mr Trichet has declared that only he speaks for the ECB, and that he will try not to surprise the markets. Yesterday he said the ECB did not share financial markets' expectations of an interest rate rise in May.
As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged yesterday. "The present high probability which is given for an increase of rates in our next meeting does not correspond to the present sentiment of the Governing Council," Mr Trichet said afterwards.
Markets and borrowers will now have to wait until the May 4 meeting for any definite signal of a rise in June.
Mr Trichet kept open this possibility, saying the central bank was watching price risks "very closely," and that short-term risks to growth were now balanced, although higher oil prices and global imbalances posed longer term risks.
"Reading between the lines, it looks as if the other members of the Governing Council disagreed with the president on the need for a May hike, since Trichet independently called for 'vigilance' last week and 'vigilance' usually signals an imminent hike," said Niall Dunne, currency analyst at Ulster Bank.
"The fledgling recovery in the eurozone is somewhat dependent on exports, and a strengthening currency won't help exports," he said.
The Council may have been rattled by this week's figures showing retail sales fell at the fastest pace in two years last month. A sustained recovery will require stronger consumer spending.
"It is positive that they are giving the eurozone economy time to gain and build up more of the strength we have been seeing for some time now," said Gernot Nerb, an economist at the Munich Ifo economic institute.
The Irish Independent also reports that drug developer Trinity Biotech is to raise about $24m through the sale of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) to a group of US and European institutional investors, the company said yesterday.
The Nasdaq and Dublin-quoted firm is selling over 2.5m ADRs at a price of $8.60 per unit in a public offering, representing a discount of 4.5pc to the company's closing price in New York on Wednesday.
Shares in Trinity finished down 13c in Dublin yesterday at €1.87.
Ronan O'Caoimh, the company's chief executive, has also agreed to purchase $2m worth of ADRs from Trinity.
"The proceeds of this offering, together with our existing cash resources, operating cashflows and banking facilities, will enable us to target larger acquisition opportunities than previously and to sustain our growth ambitions," he said yesterday.
Trinity Biotech is currently seeking clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its over-the-counter HIV test UniGold and outlined to the drug watchdog its position on home testing for the HIV syndrome.
The firm said it would also use the funds for additional products and technologies and business development.
The Irish Times reports that Aer Lingus chief executive Dermot Mannion declared yesterday that the State airline's privatisation would go ahead, despite union opposition.
More than 60 per cent of the membership of the carrier's biggest union, Siptu, last week voted to strike if the Government goes ahead and floats a majority stake in the company on the Irish Stock Exchange.
The airline intends to get €400 million from the proceeds of the flotation, which in turn will support further borrowing of €1.6 billion to fund a €2 billion development plan. Speaking after an Oireachtas Joint Transport Committee hearing yesterday, Mr Mannion made it clear that the part-privatisation of the airline was going to go ahead. "The decision is made, and the unions can make their own decision," he said.
However, he added that he was confident that all the airline's "internal constituencies" would ultimately support the move.
At the hearing, Mr Mannion refused to give assurances about the long-term fate of Aer Lingus' valuable slots at Heathrow. However, he stressed that, as they were profitable and strategically important, there was no possibility of the airline selling them for now.
"I do not see any realistic possibility of the Heathrow slots being sold," he said. "Aer Lingus and Heathrow have had a very good relationship."
The main concern about the slots is that they allow access between a range of economically important centres and the Republic. Aer Lingus chairman, John Sharman, warned that the airline should not maintain its relationship with Heathrow at the expense of other hubs that may develop in the future.
He pointed out that Dubai, to where the airline launched a new direct service from Dublin last week, acts as a hub for 21 destinations. "In 15 years time, Dubai is planning on doubling this, so you will be able to connect to double the number of places," he said.
Mr Sharman also argued that Aer Lingus could continue to open new routes to similarly strategically located destinations in the future.
Both Shay Cody, deputy general secretary of Impact, which represents pilots and cabin crew, and Michael Halpenny, national industrial secretary of Siptu, expressed concerns at the committee at the deficit in the Aer Lingus pension fund.
Mr Mannion said that the airline's share of the shortfall was €171 million. He reiterated that a contribution from the flotation and increased contributions from the company and its workers would be used to make up the deficit. Finance minister Brian Cowen said yesterday that staff would have to contribute to eliminating the shortfall.
Speaking at the Irish Management Institute national conference, Mr Cowen said: "Where you have a deficit in a pension fund, the way you close the gap is by contributions being made by the stakeholders concerned.
"Obviously, that will involve finalising arrangements with the employer and the employees on those issues."
Mr Cowen insisted that the Government would keep at least 25.1 per cent of the airline as a "long-term investment" after the flotation.
But he would not be drawn on whether or not the Government would buy additional shares if the airline issued further stock in the future to avoid the dilution of its stake below 25.1 per cent.
Mr Cody warned that last year's Goldman Sachs report on the airline's future made it clear that, if the State's holding fell below the 25 per cent mark, it would cease to have any influence on the airline's future.
He argued that in order to stop this happening, it would have to do a U-turn on its current policy and actually invest in the airline if it offered further new shares after its flotation.
The Irish Times also reports that Ryanair has lost its High Court bid to have claims brought against it by Impact and more than 60 of its pilots struck out. The union and pilots allege the airline is seeking to restrict their right to have a trade union represent them.
Ms Justice Mary Laffoy yesterday rejected Ryanair's claim that the action brought by Impact and the pilots betrayed no reasonable cause of action. She said the case raised "fundamental issues" against a background of a significant change in the law since the coming into operation of the European Convention on Human Rights Act 2003.
The proceedings could not be characterised as either frivolous, vexatious or an abuse of the court's process, the judge said.
The judge also rejected Ryanair's claim that Impact did not have the required legal standing to bring the action. It was "certainly arguable" that the union had standing to enforce certain protections for employee rights according to a 2002 decision of the European Court of Human Rights which was being relied on in the proceedings, she said.
She also held that the plaintiffs could make a case alleging a conspiracy between Ryanair and its executives and could seek damages for alleged inducement of breach of contract.
She further disagreed with Ryanair's claim that Impact and the pilots were abusing the court process in bringing the High Court action as well as pursuing claims against Ryanair before the Labour Court and the Labour Relations Commission.
The High Court proceedings were initiated after the pilots sought to have Impact represent them in relation to Ryanair's decision in 2004 to have the pilots move from Boeing 737-200 to Boeing 737-800 aircraft and to engage in the appropriate training for such movement.
In early November 2004, Ryanair refused an invitation from Impact to enter into collective bargaining over the movement of pilots from one aircraft to the other and the training required to carry it out successfully.
Impact then referred the matter, as well as victimisation claims on behalf of the pilots, to the Labour Court.
The pilots claim Ryanair wrote to them offering conversion training at a cost of €15,000 to Ryanair. Each of the letters, they claim, threatened the individual pilot with dismissal on the grounds of redundancy if they failed to accept the offer within a given period.
The letters also included a condition stating that, if Ryanair was compelled to engage in collective bargaining with any pilot association or trade union within five years of commencement of the conversion training, then the pilots would be liable to repay the training costs to Ryanair.
The Irish Examiner reports that a Kerry company, started modestly 10 years ago, was purchased yesterday for a massive €110 million by the world’s leading creator and distributor of images for use in the mass media.
Stockbyte founder and chief executive Jerry Kennelly, 45, confirmed he had sold the Tralee-based company, which was set up with IR£100,000 capital, to Getty Images, of Seattle, USA.
But he also said it was a “very bittersweet” occasion, as his 28 employees were told yesterday they were being made redundant with the closure of the Tralee office.
Mr Kennelly said a €5m package, after tax, was being set aside for the employees who had helped make his company such a success.
“It’s appropriate to recognise the hard work and creativity of these people and that they should share in our good fortune,” he said.
“They’re very skilled and talented people, who can write their own travel ticket and I’m sure some of them will start their own successful businesses.”
If evenly distributed, the package would work out at just under €180,000 per employee.
Getty Images public relations director for Europe Alison Crombie said her company would also provide adequate compensation for the staff, who would have opportunities to work in some of the company’s other offices.
Getty is effectively buying from the Tralee company 85,000 royalty-free images that can be used to sell, educate, or entertain global audiences.
Such images appear every day in the world’s newspapers, magazines, advertising campaigns, films, television programmes, books and websites.
Up to 60% of the Stockbyte image collection is already on the Getty website.
The acquisition was announced on the New York Stock Exchange at 1pm (Irish time) yesterday.
Mr Kennelly, a former freelance press photographer, also resigned yesterday. However, he is to act as a facilitator for the integration of Stockbyte into Getty.
“There’s a time to get in and a time to get out. We signed this deal at 5am today. It was time to get out. That’s business,” he told a news conference at his offices in Tralee.
“This strategy is right for Getty Images and right for us. There’s a requirement for people like Getty to acquire wholly owned media images.”
Mr Kennelly said his ambition was to form a global business and to present it as a world player.
“We were prepared to take on the giants of the industry and we won. We’ve proved that a world-beating company can be conceived in and worked successfully out of Tralee,” he said.
The Financial Times reports that Romania was shown an open door on Thursday to join the European Union in January 2007 after Olli Rehn, the EU’s enlargement commissioner, praised the country’s judicial reforms and its crackdown on corruption.
Although Mr Rehn said Romania was “not there yet”, he said that Bucharest had taken big strides towards meeting European concerns about its legal system.
Mr Rehn was speaking on his final fact-finding trip to Romania, ahead of presenting a report on May 16 on whether the Black Sea state can join the Union on January 1 next year.
“It’s already clear today that Romania has made considerable progress over the past year,” he said, after meeting Calin Popescu Tariceanu, prime minister.
However, the commissioner was much more critical of reforms in another EU candidate country – Bulgaria – which he accused of “losing time” in carrying out required judicial reforms.
Mr Rehn must recommend on May 16 whether either country should be made to wait a year before joining, to allow them to carry out further reforms.
Such a delay would be humiliating for Bucharest or Sofia. But Mr Rehn is under pressure from some European states to slow the pace of EU expansion in response to “enlargement fatigue”. Speaking to the Financial Times, Mr Rehn said he wanted “concrete results” from Romania to confirm its entry into the Union, including proof that judicial reforms were “irreversible”.
“Romania has to ensure it has a credible track record in tackling corruption and organised crime, and that will be the focus of our remaining examinations,” he said.
However, he said Bucharest had taken seriously warnings on the issue last year and already had a limited track record in bringing prosecutions. He also praised Romania’s efforts to secure its external borders.
In the case of Bulgaria, he said the country had slipped in its reforms in late 2004 and the first part of 2005, and that Brussels was working with Sofia to improve its constitutional law.
However, there is little appetite within the European Commission for making either country wait a year. “What would be gained?” asked one senior official in Brussels. “What leverage would we have then?”
Although Romania and Bulgaria are guaranteed EU membership and Croatia is likely to become the Union’s 28th member within the next five years, the prospect for future enlargements is becoming less clear.
Wolfgang Schüssel, Austria’s chancellor who holds the rotating EU presidency, said that some western European countries had a “psychological” problem with extending the Union.
Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner yesterday urged countries in south-east Europe to develop a free trade area to prepare for EU membership, and insisted that Turkey, and even Ukraine, should look forward to joining the 25-member club.
The FT also reports that high energy prices are “exacerbating” global economic imbalances, increasing the risks of a crisis, the International Monetary Fund will warn next week.
The IMF will say in its World Economic Outlook report that “global current account imbalances are likely to remain at elevated levels for longer than would otherwise have been the case, heightening the risk of sudden disorderly adjustment”. A draft of the second chapter of the report was obtained by Expansion, the Financial Times’ Spanish partner paper.
High oil prices are increasing the US trade deficit, the report says. In addition, the recycling of petrodollars is driving down interest rates providing an unsustainable boost to US private consumption.
The IMF estimates that oil prices explain half of the deterioration of the US current account deficit between 2002 and 2005. In that period, the deficit rose 2 percentage points, to a record 6.5 per cent of gross domestic product.
Rodrigo Rato, IMF managing director, this week warned that “good economic performance rests on a shaky foundation, because of large and continuing global imbalances”. The US current account deficit is forecast to increase again in 2006, Mr Rato said, partly because of the impact of high energy prices.
Washington has blamed surpluses in Japan as well as in emerging Asian countries, particularly China, for its current account problems. But the IMF’s focus on oil prices and global imbalances shows that the issue has grown in complexity.
Mr Rato has called for a “multilateral” approach to resolve the global imbalances as he warned that the “risk is that global imbalances will be unwound in an abrupt and disorderly way”.
“If a disorderly adjustment does take place, it will be very costly and disruptive to the world economy,” he said this week.
The report says that as “authorities in fuel-exporting countries are being somewhat more cautious in increasing spending, even though market expectations indicate that the current energy price shock is likely to prove more persistent than in the 1970s.”
Some of the revenue is being invested in bond markets, helping to keep long-term interest rates down, the report concludes. The IMF said the impact is hard to detect because of a lack of data, but it estimates that petrodollar flows may have reduced long-term interest rates by 30 basis points.
In the past, oil price shocks had a short-lived impact on the current account deficit, as higher energy prices led to a rise in interest rates, prompting a slowdown in growth and demand.
However, this time, rates have been kept down because economic growth in industrial countries has been largely unaffected thanks to “improved monetary frameworks and credibility”.
“All this suggests that current accounts may adjust more slowly now than in the past,” the report says.
The New York Times reports that gold touched $600 an ounce yesterday for the first time in 25 years and silver hit a 22-year high as investors continued to pour money into precious metals.
Gold futures for delivery in June settled up $7.20, or 1.2 percent, at $599.70 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and silver rose 34.2 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $12.15 an ounce. Gold, which a year ago was trading at $436.50, was last above $600 in 1981, and silver, $7.41 a year ago, was last above $12 in 1983.
The prices of precious metals have largely been rising since early 2002 and are showing few signs of cooling, confounding some experts. Among the explanations offered for the rise are the growing affluence of China and India, both big purchasers of gold jewelry; persistently high oil prices; investors looking for better returns; and concerns about a resurgence of inflation.
In addition, statements by officials in Zimbabwe, a gold-producing nation, that it might seek to take control of foreign-owned mines have stoked concerns about supply disruptions.
Some analysts said speculative buying might be the biggest contributor to the recent surge in prices.
"It's feeding off itself," said Jessica Cross, chief executive of Virtual Metals, a research firm in London. "There are vast walls of money going into all the commodities, and gold and silver are benefiting."
Ms. Cross, who has followed gold for 20 years, and other analysts say many traditional factors that drive the price of gold do not support the current rally. They noted that although higher energy prices had helped increase inflation, which gold is often used to protect against, price levels were modest by historical standards.
Some investors in gold say that they are not convinced that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have inflation under control. For one thing, the gold proponents say policy makers have wrongly focused on the core rate of consumer prices, which excludes energy and food costs, and is running at 2.1 percent. Over all, consumer prices are up 3.6 percent.
Gold investors also quibble with the government's ways of calculating inflation, noting that measures like the Consumer Price Index do not fairly capture the rise in the cost of real estate and health care.
"I believe what I see, not what I am told," said Peter D. Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and a frequent critic of official statistics.
Another investor, Jay R. Feuerstein, president of Xenon Capital Management, a futures firm in Chicago, said that by the standards of the late 1970's and early 80's, when gold prices surpassed $800 an ounce, the metal remains cheap. Adjusted for inflation, today's $600 would be substantially less than the price then. Other specialists suggest that the price has risen in part because gold, in particular, has become easier to buy through new mutual and exchange-traded funds that specialize in metals.
Investors who buy gold through an exchange-traded fund, which can be bought or sold like a stock, "don't have to be saddled with storing and insuring it and safeguarding it," said Karen A. Wallace, a precious-metals fund analyst at Morningstar in Chicago.
The World Gold Council, a trade group for mining companies, estimates that the demand for gold as an investment increased 26 percent in 2005. By comparison, the demand for gold used in jewelry increased 5 percent.
Daniel C. Peirce, a portfolio manager at State Street Global Advisors, an investment management firm in Boston, said some investors might be turning to commodities because they were dissatisfied with the performance of stocks or bonds.
"This is one of the things that will provide underpinning to the gold and commodity market," Mr. Peirce said, "especially if the equity and bond markets provide lackluster returns."
The NYT says that perhaps it was the desert air. Or maybe it was the promise of the prickly pear margaritas at the hotel bar. But something sparked the speakers at a leading industry conference here to make unusually assertive and provocative — even pugnacious — remarks yesterday about the future of advertising.
Speakers at the meeting, sponsored by the American Association of Advertising Agencies, are typically more sedate than stimulating. But those who addressed the almost 400 attendees at the opening general session of the 88th annual meeting broke with tradition, much as Madison Avenue is trying to do when creating campaigns for marketer clients.
"I think our industry would be better if agencies were as comfortable with change as we like to tell clients they should be," said Ron Berger, chief executive and chief creative officer for the New York and San Francisco offices of Euro RSCG Worldwide, part of Havas.
"I think our industry would be better if all of the people who speak at industry functions and say 'It's all about big ideas' actually had a few," said Mr. Berger, who spoke in his capacity as the 2004-6 chairman of the association, known as the Four A's.
"I think our industry would be better if everyone who complains about how terrible advertising is as a business, got out of it," Mr. Berger said, drawing delighted laughter and applause from the audience.
Mr. Berger continued to pull no punches in other parts of his speech, taking issue with well-known figures inside and outside the industry and calling them out by name.
"I think our industry would be better if we had more holding company C.E.O.'s like John Wren," he said, referring to the leader of the Omnicom Group, the world's largest agency company, "and fewer Martin Sorrells," referring to the chief executive of the WPP Group, the No. 2 agency company behind Omnicom.
"John's understanding and respect for his own brands, the work and his people show you can run a public company that pleases more than just shareholders and analysts," Mr. Berger said.
"I think our industry would be better if people like Ridley Scott, Adrian Lyne, Barry Levinson, Jim Patterson and so many others would talk about how much advertising did for them in their careers before they became famous movie directors and novelists," he added.
That comment had particular salience because Mr. Berger himself has become a director of films like "Ring of Fire."
In one instance, a person whom Mr. Berger criticized was in the room. He was Robert D. Liodice, president and chief executive at the Association of National Advertisers, whose members are the marketers that hire the agencies that belong to the Four A's.
Mr. Berger complained about a remark Mr. Liodice had made in a recent article in the trade publication Adweek, saying that marketers are often better off hiring multiple agencies rather than entrusting their entire accounts to one agency. Mr. Berger said that causes agencies to spend "too much time thinking about what their own competition is doing instead of the clients."
Mr. Liodice, interviewed later, said, "He's entitled to his opinion," adding that he was not upset at being challenged from the stage. Mr. Liodice said his point was simply that "if you do good work, you'll have the business, and if you don't do good work, the client will go elsewhere."
Mr. Berger's successor at the Four A's, Anthony J. Hopp, the 2006-8 chairman, also unleashed some zingers in his address, directed at top managers of member agencies.
"I say, come on, quit the whining," said Mr. Hopp, who is also chairman and chief executive at Campbell-Ewald in Warren, Mich., part of the Interpublic Group of Companies.
Mr. Hopp said he was reminded of Linus's words in "A Charlie Brown Christmas," when he told Charlie Brown that he turned a wonderful season into a problem.
"Are we as an industry just as guilty?" Mr. Hopp asked. "Can't we sense the potential?"
This is the perfect time to prove "that we're comfortable with all the changes facing our industry, that we accept change and embrace it," he added, listing as examples risk-taking campaigns like those by TBWA/Chiat/Day, part of Omnicom, for the Apple iPod, and Cramer-Krasselt, for CareerBuilder.
The humorously barbed CareerBuilder campaign, centered on a company run by chimpanzees, was also praised by another speaker, Andrew Robertson, president and chief executive at BBDO Worldwide in New York, a unit of Omnicom.
"If you go on to careerbuilder.com as I have," Mr. Robertson said, you will find "a wonderfully engaging feature called Monk-e-mail," offering a chance to create messages in which chimps in video clips are made to appear as if they are speaking in the voices of the senders.
"I spent about an hour and a half the first morning I found it creating and sending messages," he added. "The ability to create ads that engage like that isn't about being big or being small, it's about being able to do good work."
Mr. Robertson was so taken with the CareerBuilder campaign that he placed on the lectern a toy monkey head that moved and spoke as he addressed the audience.
"Like a lot of people in this room, I spend far too much of my life on planes," Mr. Robertson said. "I know this because I have developed an unhealthy and completely inexplicable obsession with the SkyMall catalog," where he bought the toy.
© Copyright 2007 by Finfacts.com
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