There has been anecdotal evidence from auctions of a slowdown in the Irish housing market in particular at the upper end, since September 2006, when the issue of the possible abolition or reduction of the stamp duty burden was first raised.
Last month, Minister for Finance Brian Cowen did not make any change in the stamp duty system because he argued that any reduction would be countervailed by a rise in house prices.
For much of 2005, the Irish Times Property Supplement, which is published on a Thursday, had about sixty pages per issues - about ten pages of editorial and the rest mainly full pages of colour display advertisements in the range of €12,000-€15,000 per page in revenue.
From October, the number of full pages of advertisements fell. This trend accelerated from early November when the number of full pages sold had fallen to as low as three in some issues. This decline was far in advance of the normal pre-Christmas slowdown during the recent boom years.
Today's issue is on the second working Thursday following the holidays and it would ordinarily have been expected that there would be a pick-up in advertising, even allowing for the fact that more properties tend to come on the market in the spring when thoughts of summer and less grim weather beckon.
In today's issue of fourteen pages, there is only one full page of multiple display advertisements - from Sherry Fitzgerald. There are four other full advertising pages - one is a corporate announcement, two pages are taken by a developer advertising the final phase of a new development of houses and apartments - likely sold at a big discount - and the back page is for new homes of "sophistication in a majestic setting."
While one shouldn't discount online advertising, the fall in newspaper property advertising, suggests that the six European Central Bank interest rate rises since December 2005, is having quite an impact.
While ECB paused today, the next rate rise is expected in March:
Trichet signals rise of ECB key interest rate to at least 3.75% in March
