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Last Updated: Dec 19th, 2007 - 13:17:15 |
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| Micheál Martin, Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment |
In the week that US mobile phone giant Motorola effectively announced the closure of its software centre in Cork, with the loss of 350 jobs, Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Micheál Martin received a copy of the National Competitiveness Council's report Benchmarking Ireland’s Performance.
The NCC report noted that Ireland’s economic performance remains strong but warned that the underlying source of this growth has shifted from exports towards construction activity and consumer demand. It said that the current account with the rest of the world has gone into deficit and that in a small regional economy like Ireland, economic prosperity ultimately depends on our ability to sell goods and services abroad. The report said that worryingly, our productivity growth rates, which were among the highest in the OECD, have slowed, while growth in domestic demand is being financed by high levels of personal borrowing.
The report was published on Wednesday this week and a day later, Micheál Martin had to contend with the second announcement by a US multinational in his political constituency, that shows the risks faced by an economy that is built on reliance on foreign firms that were responsible for 92% of our exports in 2006 coupled with a construction sector that accounts for 23% of GDP compared to a 12% EU average.
On Thursday, the world's top pharmaceutical firm Pfizer announced that following a review of its Irish operations, it is to close one of its manufacturing units at Ringaskiddy, County Cork and sell its manufacturing units at Little Island and Loughbeg, County Cork with 545 jobs affected.
On Friday, February 9th, Irish tech firm Cognotec said that it is reviewing its Dublin operation; Franco-American tech firm Alcatel-Lucent announced planned job cuts of 12,500 that may impact 290 Irish jobs; Canadian firm Nortel announced planned job cuts of 2,900 - Nortel has 975 Irish staff in Dublin, Belfast and Galway; Youghal, County Cork manufacturing company Elba announced the closure of its Irish operation.
There are further job losses expected in the multinational sector, including at the Xerox call centre in West Dublin, where there are about 1,000 employed.
Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Micheál Martin is in his element making jobs announcements and he seldom misses the opportunity to refer to "high quality" or "high calibre jobs." Martin's Department issues many press statements apart from any comment on the monthly redundancy figures.
The number of Irish job losses reported to the Redundancy Unit at the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment in January was 2,807 compared with 2,314 in January 2006.
The foregoing presents a dismal enough picture, but the most worrying news is that Xsil, the fastest growing Irish tech company of the present decade, is considering moving its activities overseas including its R&D activities. Xsil won the Deloitte & Touche Fast 50 award in 2006.
Martin says Ireland will become a world class knowledge economy in six years but he avoids specifics and and it raises the question as to how much is aspiration and if the Minister really knows himself?
Last month, Finfacts reported that Venture Capital investment in Irish business amounted to 2.4% of the €8 billion Irish investors ploughed into overseas commercial property, in 2006.
In a radio interview, Martin said that he's confident that new jobs in the pipeline will provide opportunities for those who will lose jobs and Martin's colleague Junior Minister Michael Ahern, who represents East Cork, said in the Dáil that US biotechnology company "Amgen recently announced 1,100 new jobs at its facility at Carrigtowhill," in his constituency.
Amgen's announcement was made on January 23, 2006.
There is no fear that any Minister would dampen down expectations about spending or even appear anything but optimistic about the economic outlook.
Aer Lingus workers who own their company and their trade unions dominate the media headlines and this week public health workers joined the fray. If they haven't shares, all of them have gold plated pensions - that would require funding of 28% of salary for 40 years in the private sector to reach comparability - as have the Ministers who received two benchmarking payments. As with the rest of the public service, their targets were also illusory.
There are 900,000 workers in the private sector without occupational pensions or job security.
There's rakes of money in the system at present and it only cost a prudent €340,000 for the launch of the good news National Development Plan.
It's still partytime and it's too late at this stage to worry about hangovers. So to hell with inconvenient truths!!
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| Goodbody Stockbrokers - - Property-related taxes have been an especially important driver of tax revenues. While stamp duty is most visible in this regard, the biggest revenue gatherer is, in fact, VAT receipts from residential construction, which accounts for c.8% of total revenue. Goodbody estimates that property-related taxes have accounted for up to a third of the increase in the total tax take over the past two years. Property-related taxes now account for at least 17% of total revenues, up from 4% ten years ago. As the property market slows, the scope for further upside revenue surprises is limited. |
The Construction Sector
In May 1998, there were 126,100 employed in the construction sector. The number had risen to 262,700 in May 2006 and the number had increased further to 275,000 in September 2006 according to the Central Statistics Office.
The CSO said that about 25,000 foreign nationals were working in the construction sector in 2005. Residential construction accounts for two-thirds of activity and output per capita is double the level in the UK.
Since December 1997, the number of public service staff (excluding commercial public companies), has increased by 77,000 to 354,000 according to the CSO.
The additional employment in construction and the public service since early 1998, has amounted to 226,000.
Employment growth in the Irish economy continued to increase in 2006, with construction, public administration, education and health accounting for 53,000 of the additional 83,000 jobs in the economy. During 2006, employment levels supported by the development agencies (Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland, Shannon Development, and Údarás na Gaeltachta) increased by 5,927 to 305,062 – 2,913 permanent full-time jobs in foreign-owned companies, and 3,014 in Irish-owned companies.
Some 17% of the private sector workforce are in the construction sector but we cannot engineer a permanent building boom.
In 2006, Goodbody Stockbrokers said that direct property taxes accounted for 17% of tax revenue. When sectors dependent on the property boom are factored in, it may well account for a third of tax revenue.
In 2004, the Minister for Finance Brian Cowen said that 28% of the average cost of a new house is made up of taxes and levies collected by the State- VAT @ 13.5%; development levies, site stamp duty, PAYE and PRSI etc.
93,419 houses and apartments were completed in 2006, up more than 15% on 2005. 93,419 x an average €300,000 x 28% amounts to a lot of bobs and illustrates how exposed the Exchequer is to a decline in housing market activity.
As to the current state of play in the property market, the property site Daft in a report published last week, showed that over the country as a whole, a fundamental downward shift in house price expectations occurred in the last three quarters of 2006.
We at Finfacts have noted the substantial fall-off in second-hand property advertising in the traditional media, since late September 2006. Compared with an average of 45 full pages carrying multiple advertisements in the Irish Times Property Supplement, up to September end, the numbers in the four weekly issues in 2007 including today, were - - -1, 2, 5, 5 and a rise to 6 today.
The European Central Bank signalled today that its key interest rate will rise to 3.75% in March. A rise to 4% is likely at some point later in the year if the Eurozone maintains a robust level of economic growth. By December, the rate may have doubled compared with December 2005 when the current series of monetary tightening began.
The Inconvenient Truth
As was noted above, the National Competitiveness Council has said that the underlying source of our current buoyant growth has shifted from exports towards construction activity and consumer demand.
Consumer demand has been powered by a huge growth in lending.
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| Source: ESRI |
The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) says that there has been a very rapid recent growth in foreign borrowing by banks to finance their mortgage lending. In the past few years banks borrowing from abroad to onlend to Irish residents has soared from 10 to 41 per cent of GDP.
The ESRI says that there has been a remarkable growth in the ratio of private credit to personal income from 48 per cent in 1995 to 132 per cent in 2005 – about 82 per cent of the latter figure relating to housing finance.
The Irish Central Bank said on January 31st that lending by Irish credit institutions recorded an increase of €59 billion in 2006. Annual growth in private-sector credit (PSC) accelerated during the first half of the year, with a record adjusted growth rate being set in June at 30.3 per cent.
On January 30th, the Central Bank warned that despite the interest rate rises the demand for credit in Ireland remains strong and that Ireland's private sector credit to GDP ratio was now the highest in the euro zone area.
In 2007, consumer demand will have the added stimulus from more than €10 billion in SSIA maturities. By 2008, that boost will have dissipated. A continued slowing in the property sector into 2008, with knock on impacts on public finances, at a time when our lack of competitiveness will continue to erode our manufacturing base, poses a challenge for policymakers.
However, it is a challenge that they simply don't want to address.
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