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Analysis/Comment Last Updated: Dec 19th, 2007 - 13:17:15


Irish General Election 2007: Soundbite Battle Score - Politicians 100; Journalists 0
By Michael Hennigan, Editor and Founder of Finfacts
Mar 11, 2007, 18:57

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Main Page - Irish General Election 2007

April 29,2007: Irish General Election 2007: Tax cuts the easy part as public sector reform outsourced to the OECD and the Irish public

Mary Harney, T.D, then Tánaiste, Leader of the Progressive Democrats and Minister for Health and Children addressing the 2nd Annual Conference of the Rehabilitation and Therapy Research Society at UCD on Friday, May 26th 2006

In 1997, the former Progressive Democrats leader Mary Harney said that if it isn't possible to distil a position on an issue into a soundbite, it isn't worth saying.

The soundbite has the virtue of a simple message sterilised of complexity, nuance and the risk of alienating sections of the electorate. By repeating it often enough, a multiplicity of parrots can become a formidable force.

The news in recent weeks has been dominated by soundbites on tax, jobs and pensions, as the majority of journalists have played the tunes called by the politicians.

Taxes

Irish income tax is low as are payroll taxes but the overall Irish tax take is largely unchanged since 1995 according to the 30-country member government think-tank, the OECD.

No party is promising to reduce taxes overall but why allow them brag about low taxes while indirect taxes/public sector charges will remain an open season?

The development of stealth taxes has been underway for many decades. If for example, we had to still affix a 2 penny stamp bought at the Post Office, to each cheque we issue, we would be surely more conscious of the tax.

Anyone who is an aspiring first time house buyer who is waylaid by politicians bragging about reducing taxes - ask them the average price of a new Irish house/apartment and how much does the Exchequer collect from the cost --- the answer is a cool 28% in taxes starting with VAT @ 13.5%, plus levies, PAYE, PRSI, site stamp duty etc - according to Minister for Finance Brian Cowen TD, in answer to a Dáil question in 2004.

The figures on the map show the level of average new car prices in each market compared to the average for all euro currency markets in 2006. Index 100 represents the European average Source: ROADTODATA


There is another tax equivalent for the public that PD Party President Tom Parlon, then leader of the Irish Farmers' association, forced the FF/PD government in 2001 to concede and is also a huge stealth tax.

Up to €4.6bn of the €18.5bn of taxpayers' money that will be spent on new main roads over the next decade, will go into the pockets of landowners. Fred Barry, chief executive of the National Roads Authority is reported as saying that the increases in the cost of land for major roads projects as "disturbing".

Land acquisition accounts for 23% of the cost of roads projects in Ireland, but just 12% in England, 10% in Denmark, 9.4% in Greece and 1% in Iceland. A further 2% of the €18.5bn provided in the Government's Transport 21 for road building over the next decade, will go to archaeologists.

Is this a tax? Is the corrupt land rezoning system a tax on property buyers via the artificial creation of land scarcity?

In a bizarre twist, PD leader Michael McDowell is leading the campaign for abolition or reform of stamp duty while PD President Tom Parlon can take credit for the road building bonanza for farmers on public welfare via the Common Agricultural Policy from Brussels - - welfare that is still primarily funded by German and Dutch taxpayers.

For a second successive week, the Sunday Independent has marshalled its principal columnists to write about the iniquities of the stamp duty system. However, while reform is merited, it is just one issue fuelling the price of property.

Bizarrely of all, the impact of a corrupt land rezoning system that creates an artificial scarcity of land and makes a small number of people immensely wealthy, at the expense of property purchasers, is a non-issue.

To add surrealism to the bizarre, a public tribunal is in its tenth year, investigating planning corruption and the system that spawned it, remains unreformed. The corruption hasn't stopped. It has only got a little more subtle than the use of brown envelopes.

Tom Parlon, the President of the PDs has said that any changes in the current system that makes some Irish farmers very wealthy, would be to  "the left of Stalin," even though Parlon and his fellow farmers are beneficiaries of European socialism via the Common Agricultural Policy.

Economist Jerome Casey, who is editor of the Building Industry Bulletin, in a report in 2003, said that site costs account for 42.5% of the cost of a house nationwide. Casey said that typically in the mid 1990s, Durkan Brothers sold apartments off O'Connell Street for £35,000 to £40,000 (€44,440 to €50,790) for which the site cost was £5,000.

Currently, both the Irish Council for Social Housing and private house builders are reporting city house site costs at up to 50% of the house price. Outside the cities, site costs can represent up to 40% of the house price. For the country as a whole, site costs may now constitute 42.5% of the house price, an increase of almost 30 percentage points on the pre-boom position. In Dublin that increases to 50%. Overall the Irish figures are grossly out of line with the rest of the developed world.

In the US land accounts for 20% of the total cost of a house. In Denmark the figure is similar while in Portugal the land factor drops to 15%.

It is similar for the rest of Europe. Casey estimated that the 30% differential between land prices for houses in Ireland accounted for about €6.6 billion of the total new and second hand housing market, estimated to be worth €22 billion in 2002.

The low standard of the Irish public health service despite the investment of billions of euros spent on it in recent years, means that  a family of two adults and two children have to spend at least €2,000 on private health insurance and at least another €1,000 on other health costs.

Is that a stealth tax?  

No doubt that Michael McDowell would still brag about "cutting taxes" and as a soundbite will hope that the voters are plonkers.

If he is back in government, will he support tax rises?? Of course he will and he could have Charlie Haughey's first Finance Minister Gene Fitzgerald as his patron.

When Fitzgerald was challenged on Budget night 1981 for quadrupling the car "registration" fee from £5 to £20, he was accused of re-introducing motor taxation.

The then Minister replied with a straight face:
"It's not a tax. It's a car registration fee!"

Jean Baptiste Colbert (1619–83), Minister for Finance to French King Louis XIV reputedly said: The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing.

It generally works because politicians get away with blather on income tax and stamp duty without being challenged by voters or journalists on so many other taxes.

Just have a look at the car price image above and wonder why is there such a big add-on for Irish motorists?

Jobs and Churn 

When clichés such as "the thin end of the wedge" and of "paramount importance" were popular with politicians who had little to say, the word churn referred to a container used by a farmer to deliver milk to the creamery or a vessel used to make butter. Then it gained currency in financial services. Now it has become a handy word for describing an inevitable job shakeout when there's no need to deal with the actual facts.

The closure by US mobile phone company Motorola of its software centre in Cork, with the loss of 330 jobs in the political constituency of the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Micheál Martin, was one of the main items on RTÉ Radio 1's Morning Ireland programme, last Friday, March 09.

The loss of what Martin often terms "high calibre jobs," required some soothing words and the Minister referred to many IDA projects in the pipeline and the strong economy that produced "86,000" additional jobs last year.

It was a good point to make and just over two hours later on the same channel, a journalist on the Today with Pat Kenny programme, spoke of "churn" in the economy and the magic 86,000 figure was again produced, without any breakdown.

An IDA Ireland spokesperson, presumably press-ganged by his political masters, also resorted to the mot du jour "churn," saying that job gains and losses is normally around 6% of the total at any time.

UCD economist Moore McDowell was also in a "what crisis, there is no crisis" mode, when he told the Sunday Independent: "In a very cold, dispassionate manner, the loss of these low-skilled jobs is in one way a good sign that Ireland is moving up the development spectrum, into truly high skilled jobs.

"This is a natural progression for the economy. It's when the likes of Intel and Google decide to pull out that we should worry about the state of the economy."

Quite so. Natural progression it may well be but when the fastest growing Irish-owned tech company of this decade is considering moving overseas, should we be concerned?

Neither does the natural progression suggest that we will replace all jobs lost as Developing Countries are increasingly the location of choice for R&D centres established by multinational companies.

The Minister, Micheál Martin spoke on Friday on The Right Hook programme on Newstalk 106 of upskilling and multiskilling. The number working in Irish construction has grown from 126,100 in early 1998 to 281,000 in late 2006. So there is quite a task and it's not that we can wave a wand and have most of the workforce employed as research scientists.

According to the State-funded Rural Development Report 2025, which was published in 2005, Growth in exports from the dominant indigenous enterprises will remain relatively low. Moreover, it is likely that a large part of manufacturing output from foreign owned enterprises will move to lower cost economies. In these circumstances, employment in building and construction will not continue at current high levels.

This argument knocks the wheels off the spin applecart but during partytime, spin will always win out.

Now for the facts:

The policy advisory agency Forfás, which reports to Micheál Martin's Department, said in January that employment growth in the Irish economy continued to increase in 2006, with construction, public administration, education and health accounting for 53,000 of the additional 83,000 jobs in the economy. During 2006, employment levels supported by the development agencies (Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland, Shannon Development, and Údarás na Gaeltachta) increased by 5,927 to 305,062 – 2,913 permanent full-time jobs in foreign-owned companies, and 3,014 in Irish-owned companies.

Against a backdrop of a strong local economy and a global economy that has been experiencing the best period of sustained economic growth in forty years, the 7% slice for jobs in the foreign-owned sector and Irish firms in manufacturing and internationally traded services, is hardly impressive.

Nevertheless, expect to hear more about "churn" and when the business sector itself, conflates the performance of the foreign-owned sector, which was responsible for 92% of Irish exports in 2006 with that of Irish-owned firms, separating myth from reality becomes even a more difficult task.

* The "86,000" figure used by Martin, comes from the CSO's Household Survey that was published on Feb. 22, 2007.

Pensions

The issue of pensions was another one that was distilled into a soundbite in February when PD leader said he supported an increase in the State pension by nearly €100 per week if elected into Government.

Dispensing lollipops is easier than providing a credible response to a situation where 900,000 Irish private sector workers have no occupational pensions, while those in the rest of the private sector who do could never match public sector pension that would require funding of 28% of annual salary for forty years.

The Challenge for the Media

It's easy for the media to join in the soundbites' debate dictated by the politicians.

However, will any politician be pushed into answering credibly what would the response be to a fall in tax income from property that amounted to 17% (direct only) in 2006? Besides, there are many further issues that would move beyond lollipop lists and soundbites.

How about probing the issue of accountability or more likely the lack of it in Irish public governance? - See - Ireland 2006 - A Banjaxed System of Public Governance where the Buck Stops Nowhere.

Fionnán Sheahan, who is now a political correspondent with the Irish Independent, wrote the following in the Irish Examiner, one month after the last General Election in 2002:

Health Minister Micheál Martin’s jargon-filled €13 billion prescription to cure the ills of the health service was launched with great aplomb at the end of last year. It was people-centred, multi-disciplinary and would be monitored and evaluated in a designated, cohesive, integrated, focused, coordinated framework and approached with capacity, efficiency and equity.

Anybody remember the Programme for Government? It emerged during the general election, before the World Cup, the Roy and Mick spat, the miserable summer and the FAI’s pie in the Sky deal, and it pledged to target inequalities in the health service.

Yet, just months later, it costs more to get private health insurance, you get less of a subsidy from the Government for your prescription costs and it costs more to go to an Accident and Emergency ward. Monitor and evaluate that for the equity.

And already since the start of the year, it costs more to go to the doctor because GP fees are one of the services identified as having displayed “unusual price increases” during the euro changeover. In other words, family doctors took advantage of the euro changeover to jack up costs per visit, and got caught by a price survey by Forfás.

The VHI premium increase may have captured the most attention as it added up to €400 onto the cost of a family’s health insurance, but it wasn’t the only move that will add to your health care costs.

Last Friday night, when the Taoiseach went to war with the FAI telling them to tear up their lucrative deal with Sky, an announcement that will affect many families quietly drifted out from the Department of Health.

The threshold for the drugs payment scheme was increased by 22%. Minister Martin’s reduction in the State subsidies for drugs means patients with already big medicine bills will have to pay €63 of their monthly cost, a rise of €10. And while we’re dealing with tenners, the charge for attending the Accident and Emergency unit, without a doctor’s note, went up from €30 to €40.

As an aside to the increase in the VHI cost the other night, the minister threw out two other signs that the old coffers aren’t as flush as they should be. Patients will be charged an extra €3 for an overnight or day stay in a private bed in a public hospital, pushing the cost to €36.

And while we’re dealing with round figures, 800 of the 6,000 additional jobs sanctioned for the health service have been scrapped. But most of these were management and administrative positions and their non-appointment will have a minimal impact on patient services, the minister said.

That’s all right then. What difference would a few hundred managers and clericals make anyway? Makes you wonder though, if they weren’t that vital, why were they being appointed in the first place?

Now we get to the interesting part. Basically, despite the pronouncements that health is the top priority for this government, the Department of Health is as prone as any other department to a spot of belt tightening.

In the never-ending quest to balance the books and achieve a small but morally significant budget surplus, Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy has told his cabinet colleagues to slash and burn their budgets.

Apparently, only the health department is exempt from the cost-cutting drive. Strange then that in the space of a week, four separate cost-cutting and revenue-increasing exercises have been announced. Maybe the budget isn’t being cut but it has to be stretched to the limit for the rest of the year as there isn’t going to be any further hand-outs.

Don’t be fooled by the jargon. To put it plainly: There’s a lot of cuts done, more to come. 
 

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© Copyright 2007 by Finfacts.com

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