View of rising Earth about five degrees above the Lunar horizon, taken on December 22, 1968 - - This is one of the more famous images of the Earth from the Apollo program, taken by the Apollo 8 astronauts as they became the first humans to circumnavigate the Moon. The rising Earth is about five degrees above the lunar horizon in this telephoto view taken from the Apollo 8 spacecraft near 110 degrees east longitude. The horizon, about 570 kilometers (250 statute miles) from the spacecraft, is near the eastern limb of the Moon as viewed from the Earth. On the earth, the sunset terminator crosses Africa. The south pole is in the white area near the left end of the terminator. North and South America are under the clouds. The lunar surface probably has less pronounced colour than indicated by this print. Photo: NASA - US National Aeronautics and Space Administration

A report for the Environmental Protection Agency says that climate change is unavoidable and will have a significant impact on Ireland's weather.

The EPA report says the average  summer temperature  will rise  by up to 3° Celsius within the next 50 years and rainfall will drop by a quarter, leading to increased risk of drought.

Winter rainfall will increase by an estimated  17% the report adds.

As a result, Ireland will experience severe drought conditions, increased flooding and the possible extinction of some cold climate species in Ireland. The island would face large sea-level rises within decades and lose large sections of coastal land. More intense storms and increased severe flooding would also occur, the report warns.

One of the authors of the report, climatologist Dr John Sweeney, of NUI Maynooth, says that an average rise of at least 2° Celsius was the equivalent of a dead cert. "To put it into Cheltenham parlance, if we kept the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to their current levels, there is a two-thirds chance we will keep temperature increases to  2° or less," he said.

The report states that the 2° Celsius rise is now the likeliest outcome from climate change.

This will raise summer temperatures by an average of up to 3° Celsius, with a drop in rainfall of up to 25 per cent in the east and south. This will give summer conditions similar to those at present in northern France. It will also prompt wetter winters, with rainfall expected to rise by a quarter in the midlands.

The report warns that rises above 2° Celsius will mean that a tipping point for dangerous and irreversible impacts of climate change could be exceeded, leading to the loss of major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Ireland would face large sea-level rises within decades and lose large sections of coastal land. More intense storms and increased severe flooding would also occur, the report warns.

The report was prepared as part of the programme of the EPA’s Environmental Research Centre by the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units from the Department of Geography, National University of Ireland, Maynooth. 

The research project highlights major changes that occurred in Ireland about 8000 years ago when a relatively sudden influx of fresh water from northern Canada is considered to have temporarily switched of the Gulf Stream flow. This resulted in an abrupt and widespread cooling event in and around Ireland. 

Dr John Sweeney stated: “This shows what could happen if the Greenland Ice shelf melts. Long-term impacts of global warming could include collapse of major ice shelves and resulting devastating effect on Ireland.    Time is rapidly running out for achievement of the 2° Celsius target and so avoiding the most dangerous impacts of climate change.”