IRISH HIRING TRENDS INTO Q3 2007

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today revealed that third-quarter hiring is expected to be positive in all of the 27 countries and territories surveyed, with employers in Germany and Norway reporting their most optimistic hiring plans since the survey began in these countries in 2003, based on seasonally adjusted data.

Meanwhile, the Asia Pacific labor market is expected to cool from three months ago, with the exception of India, where employer demand has bounced back after a dip reported in the second quarter.  In the U.S., job prospects are expected to hold firm in the next three months, but are softer compared to last year at this time.

The strongest third-quarter hiring prospects reported globally were in Singapore, Peru, India, Argentina, New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Costa Rica, Japan and Hong Kong.  Meanwhile, employers in Italy reported the least optimistic hiring plans.  Employers in 15 countries and territories are reporting weaker hiring plans compared to the second quarter; however, year-over-year those in 14 countries are reporting improved job prospects.  The quarterly survey by Manpower is the world’s most extensive forward-looking employment survey, with interviews of nearly 52,000 employers worldwide.

"Hiring activity is generally healthy across all 27 of the countries and territories we survey, with Germany continuing to be the biggest story as the labor market continues its steady improvement.  We are seeing a softer hiring pattern across Asia Pacific going into the third quarter, with the exception of India where employment prospects are set to improve,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc.  “In the U.S., employers are expecting to maintain their current hiring pace, continuing their measured approach to adding staff only when needed,” Joerres added.  

Elsewhere in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region, job prospects are strongest in Norway, South Africa, the UK, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland, while Italian employers reported the weakest, but still positive, hiring expectations in the region.  Irish employers expect to slow hiring considerably from the second quarter and last year, however, employers in eight European countries say they expect to increase the hiring pace from one year ago.

“Steady demand in the Transportation and Communications sector is helping drive continued momentum in the German labor market and throughout Europe, and Manufacturing employers in the region expect to boost hiring from one year ago,” said Joerres. “This is particularly evident in the Norwegian labor market where these two sectors are contributing to the strongest employment outlook for Norway since the survey began here four years ago.”

Of the six countries surveyed in the Americas, employers in Peru and Argentina are again the most optimistic about adding to their workforces, with Peruvian employers expecting a considerable increase in hiring compared to third quarter of 2006.  The hiring pace is expected to be slightly weaker from one year ago in Canada, Costa Rica and the U.S.

“The good news in the U.S., Canada and Mexico is that job prospects should hold steady in the next three months, based on seasonally adjusted data. Mexican employers in the Agriculture, Wholesale & Retail and Manufacturing sectors are reporting record levels of optimism, but their U.S. counterparts are less enthusiastic about adding staff at this time,” said Joerres. 

Employer hiring projections for the eight countries and territories surveyed across the Asia Pacific region are weaker when compared to the second quarter (but still positive), with the exception of India.  The strongest outlooks were reported in Singapore, India, New Zealand and Australia.  Employers in Taiwan expect to offer the fewest employment opportunities. 

“The data shows that finding and keeping talent in Singapore remains a challenge for employers, as they struggle to hire skilled staff to keep up with demand. In contrast, Japanese employers in the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector anticipate the biggest slowdown after the active second quarter, when the bulk of the year’s hiring takes place in Japan,” said Joerres.  “It should be no surprise that the strongest hiring expectations for India are found in the Services sector, where 49 percent of employers are telling us they will increase their payrolls in the third quarter.”   

Ireland 

Irish employers are reporting more conservative hiring plans moving into Quarter 3 2007, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (Ireland report).  With seasonal variations removed from the data, Ireland’s Employment Outlook is  +8%, indicating a positive hiring environment, with 15 percent of employers expecting to add to their payrolls. However, the Outlook is 11 percentage points weaker when compared to the previous quarter and 10 percentage points weaker when compared to the corresponding quarter last year.

“This quarter’s forecast was most likely influenced by the general election, with many employers adopting a wait-and-see approach to hiring for the next few months,”  says Jason Kennedy, Managing Director of Manpower Ireland. “Notably, adjusted data reveals that employers in the Finance and Public sectors expect the weakest hiring pace since the survey was established in Ireland.”

Meanwhile, employers in the Mining & Quarrying sector anticipate the strongest hiring intentions for the third quarter. All five regions in Ireland report weaker, but still positive, hiring expectations when compared to the previous quarter.

Conducted quarterly, the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease their workforces over the forthcoming quarter, and is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, gathering data from nearly 52, 000 employers across the globe each quarter.

For Quarter 3, 665 employers throughout Ireland were interviewed and asked “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the next 3 months to the end of September 2007?”  The Net Employment Outlook figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment in their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

“Although Ireland’s results indicate softer hiring patterns, the survey data still demonstrates a continued sense of optimism amongst employers in the general Irish labour market. The Outlook for the Mining and Quarrying sector is 18 percentage points stronger than last quarter with the Pharmaceutical sector also reporting steady hiring intentions,” says Kennedy.

Regional employment is expected to be strongest in Dublin (+17%). Employers in Connaught (+1%), however, report a 5 percentage point decrease quarter-over-quarter following a 14 percentage point decrease last quarter. Munster (+5%) employers, too, are less optimistic this quarter, with an Outlook 18percentage point weaker compared to three months ago. Meanwhile, employers in Ulster (+7%) indicate slightly weaker hiring plans from the previous quarter. The Outlook fell from +9% to +7%.

The least optimistic job prospects are reported by employers in the Finance/ Insurance/ Real Estate sector where the Outlook declines 22 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. This is the sector’s weakest Outlook since the Ireland survey began.

With an Outlook of +17%, employers in the Pharmaceutical sector anticipate a moderate improvement of 5 percentage points  in quarter-over-quarter hiring activity.

Employers in Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing (12%) as well as the Construction sectors  (7%) are both reporting minimal decreases of just 3 and 5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter.