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The Financial Times says that the 50 per cent figure is double the rate forecast in draft guidelines for businesses being drawn up by the World Health Organisation. They will advise planning for a 25 per cent absence, and the HSBC estimate is the most explicit warning yet that governments may be underestimating possible disruption. Turkish officials on Monday disclosed that 14 cases of bird flu had been identified from at least 30 suspected cases believed to have been contracted from birds in the east of the country. Bob Piggott, head of group crisis management at HSBC, told the Financial Times he was devising ways to cope with as little as 50 per cent of normal staff during a pandemic wave that could last for up to three months. "None of us knows the virulence of the virus, but I would rather be prepared for the worst," Piggott said. He said several other banks were "moving towards" similar estimates for absences, as they began to step up their preparations for a flu pandemic. The FT says that the figures are important as a rare public insight into estimates made by a top company – one that has considerable experience, given its activities across 77 countries including those in Asia and Canada affected by the Sars crisis in 2003. They are in contrast to official calculations, with the UK government recently downgrading its estimate to an average of 8 per cent of the workforce absent at any one time and 25 per cent cumulatively throughout the pandemic. Piggott told the Financial Times that HSBC has devised plans to boost working from home, teleconferencing and office cleaning once an hour in an effort to limit infection. He added that, alongside employees who stayed at home for at least a week with the flu, many would be off recovering from secondary infections. Others would be absent caring for family members and children taken out of school, or avoiding transport and work to avoid infection. RELATED © Copyright 2007 by Finfacts.com |