European
UK Retail Sales December 2007: A far from Merry Christmas in the High Street
By Finfacts Team
Jan 8, 2008, 10:33

Oxford Street, London.

UK retail sales rose only 0.3% on a like-for-like basis, compared with December 2006, when sales were up 2.5%, according to the British retail Consortium.

December's growth was the weakest since the decline in March 2006 when sales were hit by Easter falling in April in 2006. It was the worst December figure since 2004.

The three-month trend rate of growth fell to 0.8% from 1.8% in November for like-for-like sales, and to 2.8% from 3.8% for total sales, reflecting the continuing growth of retail space.

Kevin Hawkins, Director General, British Retail Consortium:

"This result is somewhat worse than we expected and points to a very challenging first half for 2008. Given that the full effects of the Bank's previous increases in interest rates have yet to be felt by many households, retailers and manufacturers alike need a rate cut now – preferably a full half-point."

"Sales did grow in December but, as the worst performance since March 2006, growth can only be described as weak. In the lead-up to Christmas there were huge daily swings as shoppers replaced even spending patterns with a smaller number of bargain-hunting 'big swoops'. Sector performance also varied. Clothing and footwear sales actually fell in December for a third consecutive month, while food and drink, and toiletries and cosmetics grew.

"This sets the scene for the new year ahead and like-for-like sales look set to move into negative territory as they did in 2005. This does not bode well for retailers struggling with rises in their cost bases of around 4%."

The 'like-for-like' figure shows how much consumers are spending on a comparable basis, in the same stores year-on-year. It strips out the effect of expansions, new shop openings and closures, on retailers’ sales or profits. It is this figure that is looked at by the city and analysts as an accurate and comprehensive measure of the industry's performance, as it removes any increase in retail floorspace.

The 'total' figure, which incorporates these increases, is not a true reflection of retail spend, but merely a reflection of industry growth. The like-for-like figure also monitors the increase or decrease at stores that have been open for at least one year.