| Click for the Finfacts Ireland Portal Homepage |

Finfacts Business News Centre

Home 
 
 News
 Irish
 European
 International
 Asia-Pacific Business Week
 
 Analysis/Comment

RSS FEED


How to use our RSS feed

 
Web Finfacts

See Search Box lower down this column for searches of Finfacts news pages. Where there may be the odd special character missing from an older page, it's a problem that developed when Interactive Tools upgraded to a new content management system.

Welcome

Finfacts is Ireland's leading business information site and you are in its business news section.

We provide access to live business television and business related videos from: Bloomberg TV; The Wall Street Journal; CNBC and the Financial Times. Click image:

Links

Finfacts Homepage

Irish Share Prices

Euribor Daily Rates

Irish Economy

Global Income Per Capita

Global Cost of Living

Irish Tax 2008

Climate Change Reports

Global News

Bloomberg News

CNN Money

Cnet Tech News

Newspapers

Irish Independent

Irish Times

Irish Examiner

New York Times

Financial Times

Technology News

 

Feedback

 

Content Management by interactivetools.com.

News : International Last Updated: Apr 24, 2009 - 5:31:05 PM


Greenspan says US economic growth is at zero; PIMCO's Bill Gross says US needs a "demand-based" fiscal package not a boost to consumption
By Finfacts Team
Feb 26, 2008 - 7:53:55 AM

Email this article
 Printer friendly page
The Jeddah Corniche by the Red Sea - Jeddah, the Saudi Arabian commercial capital, has historically been the port city for the Holy City of Makkah, located to the south.

The former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, has warned that US economic growth has stalled and a quick recovery is not likely.  Meanwhile, Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund PIMCO, says that until recently, US and therefore global demand has been driven by the ability to lower interest rates and extend credit to an increasing majority of Americans. Gross says that because demand in the form of consumption has been artificially and fictitiously stimulated in recent years by financial engineering run amuck, there is a legitimate question as to whether its black hole imploding destructiveness can be totally countered with another dose of lower yields and deficit spending packages.

"As of right now US economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said on Monday, at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea commercial capital. "We are at stall speed."

The US Federal Reserve said last week that 2008 growth will be between 1.3% and 2%.

Greenspan also forecast that booming oil prices, which hit a record of more than $101 last week would keep rising and that the US housing market would worsen before the tide turned.

On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing US houses in January, were 23.4% below the January 2007 level.

Increased globalisation of trade could offset a sharp downturn in consumer spending and "facilitate the absorption of shocks in the US," Greenspan said.

In a separate speech at an investment conference in the Gulf state of Abu Dhabi, Greenspan said US resistance to Gulf or Asian government-backed investors would be "counter-productive" and will result in all parties being "losers".

Dangers of a déjà vu trek to 1% short rates

Bill Gross, PIMCO Managing Director, said overnight, that Australian government debt is more attractive than Treasuries because US Federal Reserve policy makers are failing to tackle inflation.

``US citizens, the Federal Reserve and policy makers, certainly in an election year, are unwilling to accept their medicine,'' Gross told a meeting in Sydney via a live broadcast from Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.'s (PIMCO) head office. ``They're unwilling to endure the pain'' of raising interest rates.


In his monthly Investment Newsletter for February, Gross says that the US needs a "demand-based" fiscal package alright, but a $300-$500 billion permanent one, in addition to the proposed temporary stimulus package, "as the system of modern day levered shadow finance slows to a crawl or even contracts at the edges, its ability to systemically fertilize economic growth must be called into question. But government writing checks for American consumers which then flow to foreign central banks is not the permanent solution; it only makes sense in the short-term as a life preserver. To provide a stable recovery path, government spending needs to fill the gap – not consumption. Public works programs, badly needed infrastructure repairs, as well as spending on research and development projects should form the heart of our path to recovery. Assistance for homeowners? That too – figure out a fiscal/regulatory way to stop the slide in housing prices and foreclosures but please – no traffic jams at the Wal-Mart checkout counter in 2009 and beyond."

Gross writes: "Chairman Bernanke must recognize the reduced benefits and obvious dangers of a déjà vu trek to 1% short rates. Those yields produced 5% 30-year mortgage rates to the homeowner for a 2-3 month period in 2003 and they could do so again, but bubble creating, inflation inducing damage to the U.S. dollar would be the likely result now. Best to stop far short of 1% and at the same time encourage reforms in FHA government assisted programs that would permit subsidized mortgage rates with minimal down payments.

An artificially low, 1% short-term interest rate was an elixir during the days of a burgeoning shadow banking system. It cannot be the solution now.

In combination, a well constructed, more than temporary fiscal/monetary stimulus plan is what is required to rejuvenate a U.S. economy reeling from a low punch delivered by a private market economy gone too far. Its "Rosemary’s Baby" took the form of a shadow banking system based on leverage and the fateful conclusion that a finance-based economy alone can deliver prosperity."

Related Articles


© Copyright 2009 by Finfacts.com

Top of Page

International
Latest Headlines
Markets News Friday: Shares fall in Europe and Asia after US June payroll data depressed sentiment; US markets closed Friday for Independence Day weekend
Friday Newspaper Review - Irish Business News and International Stories - - July 03, 2009
Markets News Afternoon: Johnson & Johnson in $1.5bn deal with Elan; Shares surge in Dublin but ISEQ in red; Stocks down sharply in Europe and US
US job loss of 467,000 in June higher than expected; Unemployment highest since 1983; Broad measure of unemployment rose to 16.5%
Markets News Thursday: European shares fall; Goldman Sachs on track to pay average of $700,000 per employee in 2009 - - nearly double 2008 level
Thursday Newspaper Review - Irish Business News and International Stories - - July 02, 2009
IMF approves bond sales to member countries for first time to support bailouts; World Bank increases support 54% in 12 months to June to counter financial crisis
Global manufacturing economy in recovery mode led by China
OECD Health Data 2009: Percentage of foreign-trained doctors tripled in Ireland and Finland between 2000 and 2007
Markets News Afternoon: Smurfit Kappa to cut 140 jobs in Cork; US firm Bausch & Lomb to move 120 jobs from Waterford to New York; Stocks rise in Europe and US
US manufacturing sector contracted again in June but pace of decline is slowing
US construction spending fell in May;  US home sales contract signings slightly increased
US nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000 in June
Markets News Wednesday: Shares rise in Europe but decline in Dublin
Chinese and Indian manufacturing PMI data showed a continued improvement in operating conditions in June
Wednesday Newspaper Review - Irish Business News and International Stories - - July 01, 2009
Reports says collaboration is big challenge for businesses in China; Identifies resistance to sharing information/ continued focus on hierarchies
China has pegged currency to US dollar since July 2008 to help exporters; Emerging markets expected to keep currencies undervalued as crisis risks recede
Markets News Afternoon: US Consumer Confidence fall in June sends stocks sliding; Irish and UK economies in record growth tumbles
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in June after months of strong gains