Key findings:
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Although conditions vary widely across the Irish mortgage market, signs are emerging of a bottoming out in activity.
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Brokers are confident that a modest improvement will occur in coming months.
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Lower interest rates would provide the greatest boost to the market but pessimism about the economy is also seen as a central factor.
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Even modest cuts in borrowing costs could make a big difference to the Irish mortgage market
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Budget changes introduced by Cowen are seen having only a slight impact on the mortgage market in 2008.
The Spring IIB Homeloans/IMAF Mortgage Market Sentiment Survey published today contains some encouraging news according toPaul Short, President, IMAF (Independent Mortgage Advisers Federation) , with what it call tentative signs that the fall in activity could be coming to an end. Short suggested "uncertainty about interest rates remain a key issue for the market." "Brokers believe that a more favourable interest rate climate would make a major difference to the market in the coming year. With a little luck this will materialise late in 2008," said Short.
'The survey suggests that conditions vary widely across the market at present" noted Short. "The experience of individual brokers varies widely. This may hint at a market that is in the process of bottoming out. It probably also reflects intense competition in the marketplace at present."
John McAlinden, Head of Marketing at IIB Homeloans also commented on signs of a levelling off in activity. "While it might be premature to suggest that a pick-up in activity is at hand, brokers are not reporting anything like the sort of deterioration seen in 2007,' he said, 'there is also a widespread expectation that conditions should improve in the months ahead."
McAlinden noted that "nervousness about the general outlook for the Irish economy is holding many would-be borrowers back at present. Fears about job security make a big difference when people are contemplating what is usually the most important financial transaction in their lives."
The survey sheds some light on brokers' assessment of the impact of a range of factors on the Irish mortgage market according to Austin Hughes, Chief Economist, IIB Bank who carried out the research. 'The survey suggests that even the idea of lower interest rates could make a significant difference to the Irish mortgage market" said Hughes. "In contrast, the impact of budget changes and further price falls appears limited. 'One surprising aspect of the survey is that only 2% of brokers think budget changes introduced by Mr. Cowen in December will have a substantial impact, while only 5% think further generalised falls in house prices would boost activity' he added. So, brokers feel the problem is one of weak demand rather than excessive supply."
The one key development that the Irish mortgage market appears to be aching for, is an early Eurozone recession as that calamity for those who would lose their jobs or a collapse in the US dollar, are the only developments that would trigger ECB rate cuts in the coming three months. However, today's exports data from Germany and France and industrial output data is bad news for those who see rate cuts as necessary to revive their fortunes.
German exports rose 9% in January 2008 despite strong euro; French exports hit record; France and Italy report better-than-expected industrial production data for January
Three Irish bank economists on ECB rate outlook: From 3 cuts beginning in June to unchanged benchmark of 4% in December 2008
IIB Bank's principal business activity in the Irish market is property-related lending.
